The top free agent of the offseason hasn’t been signed for nearly a month until the pitchers and catchers are done in spring training. Some recent reports, including Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio, have suggested that the Blue Jays, Dodgers and Mets are the leading contenders. Kyle Tucker at the moment. All three recently met Tucker, either in person or via Zoom, per Duquette. Will Sammon of The Athletic reports today that the Mets are in line to offer him $120MM to $140MM for a three-year contract. Sammon says Tucker could make a decision as soon as this week.
At the start of the season, MLBTR projected Tucker with $400MM guaranteed in an 11-year deal. That would be $36.36MM in average annual value, paying him from his age 29 to 39 seasons. That will be accompanied by other big deals for top players.
Over the past decade, eight position players have signed nine or more years: Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron is the judge, Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, Manny Machado, Trea Turner again Xander Bogaerts. Ohtani earned an AAV of $70MM but with significant upside, bringing the current value closer to the $45MM range. Soto received $51MM and Judge $40MM. Some were in the $25-35MM range.
It is not known what the Blue Jays or Dodgers are willing to do with Tucker, but he has not been signed as of mid-January, which means he has not yet received an offer that forces him to sign.
In recent years, it has become a common move for a struggling free agent to turn to a short-term deal with high AAVs and exits. Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman again Pete Alonso have gone down this road in recent years. Everyone in that team except Alonso took a three-year deal. Bregman’s was technically worth $40MM annually but the reversal brought the NPV down to the $30MM range. Correa had a $35.1MM AAV, Bellinger $26.7MM and Chapman $18MM. Alonso’s two-year contract had a $27MM AAV.
The plan in that case is to bank a decent amount of money before taking another crack at free agency. The hope will be to have more luck getting a long-term deal with a better pitch season and no longer be tied to qualifying penalties. A player can only receive a qualifying contribution once in their career. Tucker just turned down a QO from the Cubs and whoever signs him now will face the associated penalties.
This doesn’t always work but it does in most cases. Chapman ended up signing a $151MM extension with the Giants shortly before he returned to free agency. Correa would get a $325MM deal from the Giants. Concerns about his body put the kibosh on that but he still received a $200MM guarantee from the Twins. This winter, Alonso earned $155MM from the Orioles. Bregman recently got $175MM from the Cubs, though in retrospect it breaks the NPV somewhere in the $150MM range.
There is also a group appeal. They have to pay a premium salary and usually lose a draft pick or two, and maybe an international bonus pool spot, but they avoid a long-term commitment. Since players typically decline in production as they move into their 30s, it’s understandable that the team is looking to avoid height.
Sammon isn’t talking about opting out of his piece offered by the Mets but that could be part of it. From Tucker’s point of view, he will be out for a few seasons due to injuries but he is still very young, entering his age 29 season. A three-year contract without an opt-out would allow him to return to free agency before his age-32 season, and an opt-out would allow him to test the market again sooner.
Whether he and his representatives have the desire for that kind of approach is unknown. It’s probably worth mentioning that the five guys mentioned above who took temporary deals were all clients of Boras Corporation. He also went down that road with pots like that Blake Snell, Carlos Rodón again Jordan Montgomery. Tucker is not a Boras guy, as he is represented by Excel Sports Management.
Perhaps Tucker would consider a temporary deal but that also depends on what other offers are. It is speculated that the Dodgers will also opt for a short-term deal. They could use an outside boost but their roster is one of the oldest in the league and they have plenty of top prospects. Those prospects don’t offer immediate help, as most of them have only just reached the Double-A level or never hit it at all. Tucker’s short-term deal would allow them to develop on grass until those young guys can become successful big players.
The Jays are thought to be very willing to work out a long-term deal. They just signed Kazuma Okamoto but it was reported last week that they are still chasing Tucker hard even after he arrived in Okamoto. Toronto has struggled this winter after getting into the World Series in 2025. They offered a nine-figure deal Dylan Ceasethen there are feasts for eight people Cody Ponce, Tyler Rogers and Okamoto. That boosted their payroll to a higher level but that could be the result of their intense performance last year.
And they have more money coming off the books after 2026, as George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, I’m Garcia, Daulton Varsho again Eric Lauer they are free agents. Myles Straw he will leave again if his club selection is rejected again José Berríos he can get out of his contract. That might make the Jays twice as aggressive now, while they still have all that talent on the roster.
Next winter doesn’t really have Tucker’s caliber of talent and may be hampered by the lockout. If Tucker were to sign a short-term deal, he could become a top free agent a year from now but also throw himself into the winter. The long-term deal will keep him out of any trouble a year from now.
For the Mets, it seems they prefer to avoid long-term deals for now. With David Stearns now president of baseball operations, they made an exception for Soto, 26, but never signed him to a deal longer than three years.
They definitely need help from the outside world though. They trade Brandon Nimmo to the Rangers Marcus Semien. They currently have Soto in one corner as well Tyrone Taylor in the middle of nowhere. Hope Carson Benge he may take the Opening Day job but may not be able to play center. If Tucker is brought in to take one corner and Soto at the other, Benge and Taylor could have a spring battle for the center field gig. If Taylor can win, Benge can get more Triple-A. If Benge wins, Taylor could be the fourth outfielder.
Financially, there was no real limit to what they could do. Owner Steve Cohen has shown that he is willing to run the Mets to have the highest salary in the league. They had a decent offseason, defined more by subtraction than addition. They sent Nimmo again Jeff McNeil while also allowing Alonso once Edwin Díaz sign elsewhere.
RosterResource projects a $295MM payroll and $296MM competitive balance sheet number. Those are big numbers but the Mets finished 2025 at $340MM and $337MM in those categories, respectively. Paying Tucker something between $40MM and $47MM per year would put them back in last year’s range.
It may also be a lot to drive away fans, who are currently unhappy because of the departure of familiar faces in the past few months. It will also prevent them from adding another big salary to the long-term books, as they are already willing to pay Soto once Francisco Lindor Annual maximum until 2039 and 2031 respectively.
Photo courtesy of David Banks, Imagn Images
