6 players on the PGA Tour who are destined for breakout (or comeback!) seasons

As the 2026 PGA Tour season kicks off in Hawaii later this week, marquee names and stories will dominate the forward-looking exercise throughout professional golf.

But what do the numbers say about the stars that may emerge this year? And what statistics and trends point to potential rebound campaigns among veteran players? I focus on key metrics to identify strong candidates to fill these roles in 2026. Some names will become popular, while others will slip under the radar – but only for a short while.

PIERCESON COODY

Pierceson Coody has spent his entire golf life walking in the long shadow of expectation; he is a third-generation tour player and the grandson of 1971 Masters winner Charles Coody. The 25-year-old Texan has repeatedly met this period in the way of climbing to the top of the World Amateur Golf Ranking, the national championship of the group in Texas and the trio of the Korn Ferry Tour.

Now, the numbers point to a player who is ready to take the next step in his career. There are 135 players with enough rounds to officially qualify for PGA Tour statistics for both the 2024 and ’25 seasons. On that team, Coody made a big jump in strikeouts per round, increasing his average by 1.15 per round in ’25.

Coody led the Tour in strokes gained off the tee and ranked fourth on the green in percentage control last season. From the 3M Open through the end of the season, Coody ranked T2 on Tour in GIR (77.8%), 4th in strokes gained hitting (+1.40) and 8th in scoring average.

Key statistics we can improve on: from 15 to 20 meters. Coody has been ranked outside the top 150 on Tour in making percentages from that range for the past two seasons. Getting that number down to average visits can be the result.

GARRICK HIGGO

You could give most golf fans 50 guesses as to who led the PGA Tour in birdie average last season, and they wouldn’t guess the right answer. It’s Higgo, who rose from 159th in the Tour’s 2024 stroke total to 22nd last year. That jump of 137 spots is easily the highest among eligible players (second-biggest jump: Alex Smalley, up 115 spots).

Higgo’s victory last April in Corales Puntacana was clearly his highlight of the season, but the most promising part of his statistical picture in 2025 was his consistent performance. After five top-10 finishes in 92 PGA Tour starts in 2021-24, Higgo matched that number in 15 events last season. In 2024, Higgo ranked well outside the top 100 in bogey avoidance. Last season, the only player with a lower bogey rate on Tour was Scottie Scheffler.

Key statistics we can improve on: wrong intimacy. Higgo ranked 160th last year in average distance from the fairway (47′ 3″), a full two feet worse than the PGA Tour average. The good news is that he has plenty of physical ability to change that; Higgo is in the top 20 on Tour for clubhead speed.

RICKIE FOWLER

Major League Baseball has probably the most prominent mid-season break in American pro sports – before and after the All-Star Game is universally regarded as an important checkpoint in the marathon season. Player numbers are often referred to with that dividing line. On the PGA Tour, there are different ways to cut it, but the general “middle ground” is between Hawaii and East Lake in early May.

In 2025, there were 100 players last season who had 30 or more PGA Tour rounds on either side of that divide. Among the list of players who improved their performance the most in the second half compared to the first is Fowler, whose improvement of 1.45 strokes gained per round is 7th-best in that group.

Fowler jumped more than 100 spots from 2024 to 2025 in bogey avoidance (140th to 28th), and finished the season with T6 and T7 finishes in his first two FedExCup Playoff starts.

Key statistics we can improve on: approach the game. Fowler returned to the winner’s circle in 2023, a season in which he climbed into the top 10 on the PGA Tour in strokes gained. That number dropped to 124 in 2024 before improving last season. Fowler’s two strong playoffs marked his best two weeks of iron play of the year, a potential flash of what’s to come.

MICHAEL THORBJONSEN

There are few hitting talents with as much promise as former US Junior Amateur champion Michael Thorbjornsen. In 2025, he pulled off the rare double figures of leading the Tour in both total drives and greens in regulation. The list of other players to do so in the last 30 seasons is impressive: Hal Sutton in 1998, David Duval in 1999, Tiger Woods in 2000 and Henrik Stenson in 2015.

Big-time achievements quickly followed for each of those famous players after getting that round of football. Sutton went on to win Players in 2000. Duval was successful and won his major at The Open in 2001. Among the greatest golfers of all time, Woods completed the “Tiger Slam” in ’01. Stenson went on to knock off Phil Mickelson to win the 2016 Open.

That impressive jump may not be what Thorbjornsen expects in 2025 – he’s played a major tournament as a professional – but it speaks to his immense potential. In his final start of 2025, the RSM Classic, Thorbjornsen entered the final round just two shots off the lead before finishing tied for 7th. That first PGA Tour victory is coming soon.

Key statistics we can improve on: stripes found to lay. It’s a broad brush here, but Thorbjornsen ranked outside the top 100 on tour in almost every key metric last year. That includes the defining strokes he received, when he was 120 years old. The only time Thorbjornsen finished the week in the top 20 of the Tour field in placing was at the 3M Open, where he finished T4.

JOHNNY KEEFER

Consider this: In the seven seasons that the Korn Ferry Tour has awarded Rookie of the Year honors, two players have earned that distinction. again Player of the Year: Scottie Scheffler in 2018 and Johnny Keefer in 2025.

If you didn’t follow KFT last season, Keefer’s vault up the Official World Golf Ranking may surprise you. He finished the year in 48th place, just behind Wyndham Clark and Si Woo Kim. And, yes, that top-50 EOY finish earned Keefer an invitation to Augusta National this coming April.

Keefer showed moderate prowess from a statistical standpoint on the Korn Ferry Tour last season: more than 320 yards off the tee, top 15 on greens in value, 2nd in scoring and 10th in putting average. He ended his year with a top-10 finish at the PGA Tour’s RSM Classic, too.

Key statistics we can improve on: The PGA Tour begins. It’s an easy observation, but Keefer has yet to represent the world’s major circuit, having played in just six PGA Tour events. As hot as it has been for the past 18 months, the rise may slow in early 2026.

MAX HOMA

After finishing in the top 10 in nearly 30% of his PGA Tour starts from 2021 to 2023, Max Homa has just five appearances in the past two seasons. His steady rise in career led to a change, which began to bear fruit when he shot a 64 in Round 2 of the PGA Championship. More consistent performances came at the end of the year; In his last eight starts in 2025, Homa averaged just 2.2 bogeys-or-worse per round and had a 68.7 stroke average.

Homa entered last summer’s 3M Open with a -0.65 stroke average earned tee-to-green in each round during the ’25 Tour season. From then until the end of the year, that number was +0.66 per round. Homa has spent 67 weeks of his career in the top 10 of the Official World Golf Ranking. The numbers suggest he’s closer to that version of himself than we’ve seen for most of the past 24 months.

Key statistics we can improve on: birdie conversion percentage. This is a two-tiered number of sorts: Homa’s progressive style of play will naturally lead to the appearance of realistic birds. That will lead to a higher percentage of converted putts, a category in which he ranks 5th in 2023. The last two seasons, he ranked 86th and 71st, respectively. Homa has been ranked in the Tour’s top 10 in most all-around categories for the past three seasons, and there’s no reason to think he can’t regain that form soon.