While the Red Sox have spent a lot of time focusing on the trade market to improve their roster, they now appear to be turning to free agency. ESPN’s Buster Olney reported on the podcast episode “Start with Korolnek and Colaiacovo” (audio link provided by Robbie Hyde of Foul Territory) The Red Sox did “furious” to offer Bregman before speculating that Bregman would eventually return to Boston.
The market for position players has been relatively quiet since then Kyle Schwarber again Pete Alonso was signed during the Winter Sessions last month. While the third baseman Kazuma OkamotoFree agency wrapped up yesterday when he signed a four-year contract with the Blue Jays, Bregman is still the top dog available at the position. Eugenio Suarez, Ramon Uriasagain Yoan Moncada. The best overall talent available this winter without it Bo BichetteBregman remained on the free agent market last season before signing a three-year, $120MM contract with Boston that included multiple opt-outs and deferred cash. That deal worked out well for both sides, as Bregman turned in a 125 wRC+ and 3.5 WAR in 118 games before hitting the open market this winter.
That said, he has also struggled to find a market for the type of long-term contract he has been seeking. Boston is known to be interested in a reunion, but there have been indications that the Red Sox are reluctant to go for him long term (or any other free agent, for that matter). They’ve kicked the tires in a number of different ways this winter, from trades for similar interior talents Ketel Marte, Brendan Donovanagain Isaac Paredes to another player like Okamoto or Bichette in free agency. At this point, however, Okamoto is off the market and Marte seems unlikely to be dealt.
Perhaps other diminishing returns led Boston to step up its pursuit of a Bregman reunion, though it should be noted that “furious” giving does not mean long-term. It could certainly be argued that the average annual value of $40MM (dropped to just under $32MM after getting deferred money) Bregman’s deal signed with the Red Sox last year was a deferred payment. “furious” give thanks to a high annual salary and a player-friendly exit structure, and that deal came out in just three seasons. So maybe the Tigers’ best offer for Bregman from last winter was called aggressive, as the six-year, $171.5MM offer topped the winning bid by more than $50MM in total guarantee and was the longest offer Bregman received.
Regardless of what Boston’s offer for Bregman looks like right now, it seems like market forces could push the two sides back together. As mentioned earlier, some of the Red Sox’s potential replacements for Bregman have started to come off the market or they may be very small. Meanwhile, Bregman’s other options for Boston could also be diminished. Just as Okamoto’s signing in Toronto took him off the table for the Red Sox, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports that the deal makes Bregman signing with the Jays less likely despite mutual interest between the two sides prior to Okamoto’s signing. Likewise, there have been connections drawn between Bregman and the Diamondbacks, but that may not be enough for Arizona to pull off financially if a trade for Marte is taken off the table.
Even if the Jays and Diamondbacks aren’t the most likely suitors at this point, other options are still available. The Cubs remain involved in the Bregman market at least to some extent, although (like the Red Sox) they seem reluctant to commit to long-term multi-player deals. The Tigers appear to be on the edge of the Bregman market but don’t appear to be an aggressive suitor. The Phillies were recently reported to have at least some interest in Bichette and may fit Bregman conceptually, although they have not been tied to Bregman directly and even the Bichette connection seems to run contrary to previous reports suggesting that their cap space is limited at this time.
