The Rangers entered the offseason needing to reboot the program. They’ve had below-average offenses in back-to-back years and haven’t put together consistently competitive at-bats. They are 20th and 26th, respectively, in on-base percentage over the past two seasons. Their walk rate dropped from 14 to 23. Their hitters were among the most aggressive in MLB, both on pitches in and out of the strike zone.
While that needed to be fixed, the front office appears to be operating under a tight budget. They have five contracts on the books that pay at least $18.5MM per year. They are now two years removed from their World Series run, and ownership has begun cutting spending through the 2023-24 offseason after their local broadcast deal fell through. Offseason reporting has cast doubt on their chances of meeting the asking price for mid-tier free agent hitters JT Realmuto again Luis Arraez.
Texas has made some significant changes on the offensive end, though each has come with a significant accompanying subtraction. They took turns Marcus Semien for Brandon Nimmotaking more money in general but clearing less pay room in the short term. Nimmo provides the way the patient wants and allows them to continue Adolis García in the right field. Another change came behind the plate, where the tenders were Jonah Heim after a poor second season. He was replaced Danny Jansen on a two-year free agent deal.
Catcher and outfield mix is almost set. Jansen joins Kyle Higashioka as a veteran pairing behind the plate. Nimmo slots nearby Wyatt Langford again Evan Carter in the grass. However, they have yet to find a replacement for Semien at second base. It seems they plan to do that internally. That would be a tall ask for an infield team that was weak even with Semien.
The Rangers were in the bottom half of MLB in offense from every point of the field. Semien’s strong defensive grades have kept him above average at second base overall despite his declining production at the plate. The corners were the biggest problem. They had a combined .248/.298/.393 batting line from their first and third basemen.
Most of the good came from the utilityman Josh Smithwho had a .283/.369/.439 showing in his 227 plate appearances at those positions. If the Rangers don’t trade Semien out, Smith is ticketed for regular playing time at second base. The other nine players who logged any infield reps last year combined for .241/.283/.384 in nearly 1,100 walks.
Three players in that team — Rowdy Tellez, Dylan Moore again Blaine Crim – are no longer listed. An early first-round pick Justin Foscue will come out of a league-average streak in Triple-A and will turn 27 before Opening Day. You’re probably on the list bubble. Ezequiel Duran it should be, as he’s hit .237/.278/.309 over the past two seasons. Joc Pederson he made two starts but was a full-time draft pick, and he disappointed in the first season of a two-year free agent contract.
As it stands, that leaves three players fighting for the two remaining spots on the field: Jake Burger, Josh Jung again Cody Freeman. Freeman, who turns 25 today, is coming off a stellar Triple-A season but hit .228/.258/.342 in 36 MLB games. He’s a good contact hitter but doesn’t walk often and has questionable power. Freeman slugged a career-best 19 homers at Triple-A Round Rock last year, but the Pacific Coast League is increasing power numbers for most hitters. He ranked near the bottom of the league in hard contact rate in his brief MLB appearance.
If Freeman settles in as the everyday third or second baseman, that would allow Skip Schumaker to move Smith to the infield in a relief role. Freeman feels like a kind of resource himself, though. Burger and Jung project as the primary cornerback tandem without speculating that Texas could move on from one or both players.
The Rangers acquired Burger from the Marlins last season. He went on the injured list three times and had a brief stint in Triple-A when he went down earlier in the year. Burger finished his first season in Arlington with a level performance. He hit .236/.269/.419 over 376 plate appearances and provided limited baserunning and defense. Burger had surgery after the season to repair a torn tendon in his left wrist. The hope is that his power has been limited by playmaking and he can return to being a 30-homer threat. Burger has never posted an OBP over .310 in a season (except his rookie year in which he played in 15 games), so he won’t get on base much even if the power returns.
Jung is an equally aggressive fighter. The Rangers are clearly frustrated with his approach. They selected him after he hit .158 with a .208 mark in June. He came back hot a few weeks later, but that was driven by a high rate of balls in play that masked a hitter/walk profile. Jung’s numbers crashed again in September. He finished the season with a .251/.294/.390 slash and proved to be a game changer coming into the winter. There have been no reports about Rangers Jung stores. It looks like they are leaning towards giving him a chance to bounce back, which could be driven by their lack of other options.
Maybe that will change when Spring Training approaches and free agent prices drop. Alex Bregman or Eugenio Suarez they are probably out of range no matter what time it is. If Arraez remains unsigned in February, could he sign a one-year contract? Rhys Hoskins or Yoan Moncada will sign affordable one-year contracts and will at least provide insurance for the first or third season, respectively. Ryan Mountcastle should be traded now that the Orioles have signed him Pete Alonso. Would the Rangers be willing to meet a settlement near $8MM, or is Mountcastle too similar to Burger? Perhaps Bregman signs with a team with a less established third baseman available as a trade chip.
Otherwise, the Rangers would have to rely on a few rebounding prospects and a small farm system. The top prospect of the field Sebastian Walcott could be the answer at the end of the season. He has no Triple-A experience and won’t turn 20 until March, so it’s unlikely he’ll break camp. First baseman Abimelech Ortiz batted his way onto the 40-man roster with a .257/.356/.479 showing between the top two in the minor leagues. Most scouts feel he projects as a bench bat/Quad-A type, but the opportunity is there if he can move beyond that. Texas will need an underdog to step up to get enough production from Wall.
Photo courtesy of Kevin Jairaj, Imagn Images
