The Blue Jays have been a very active team this winter, making splashes in rotation (Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce), ox (Tyler Rogers), and especially recently the list with their third player signing Kazuma Okamoto. While Okamoto has the potential to be an impact bat, given his track record as one of the best hitters in NPB, he is not on the same level as several other hitters Toronto has been linked to. On the other hand, the Jays have been linked to several top free agents this offseason. Recently, reports have focused on three names: outfielder Kyle Tuckera football player Bo Bichetteand third basemen Alex Bregman.
Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reported yesterday that while the Blue Jays could add more from here, that would likely require the team to shell out payroll elsewhere on the roster. Buster Olney and Jesse Rogers of ESPN wrote this morning that the Okamoto signing does not eliminate the Jays from running for Tucker or Bichette.
It’s been quiet on the Tucker front, although Rogers and Olney suggest he has short- and long-term opportunities ahead of him. Whichever path he takes, the annual commitment will be important. Toronto has expressed a willingness to deal with it Jose Berrios this winter, but his contract is under water. They would not be able to discharge the entire $66MM in debt. Anthony Santander makes a lot of money again, but will be even harder to sell as he is coming off a career-worst season in which he was limited to 54 games due to injury; Santander also posted a .175/.271/.294 slash (61 wRC+) when healthy enough to play.
Neither Berrios nor Santander will clear enough payroll to completely offset the addition of Tucker, Bichette or Bregman. Berrios is owed $18MM in 2026 and has a matching salary of $24MM in 2027-28. Santander owes $16.5MM in 2026 and ’27, $14.75MM in ’28 and $12.75MM in ’29. A whopping $10MM of his salary is deferred each season.
If the Blue Jays are really close to the top end when it comes to payroll, it’s hard to imagine them coming out on top in one of those free agencies. The Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, and Mets are among the other big-market clubs that have been linked to at least one of those free agents in some way.
Of course, it’s possible that the Jays don’t feel much need to shed salary at all. Their $279MM in payroll and $308MM in luxury tax obligations (according to RosterResource) are franchise records that put them in the upper bracket of luxury penalties, but the Jays have a lot of money coming off the books after this season. George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Daulton Varsho, I’m Garciaagain Eric Lauer all will reach free companies after 2026. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Varsho and Lauer for a combined $14.1MM in settlements this year, while the other four will combine for $70.5MM. That’s about $85MM in salary that will come off the books, and the decline in Myles Straw’s club option next season will increase that figure.
Some of that money will certainly need to be reinvested in the roster to accommodate departing veterans, but next year’s free agent class cannot boast a game-changing, middle-of-the-order bat at the level of Tucker or even Bichette. Seiya Suzuki, Randy Arozarena, Nico Hoerneragain Jazz Chisholm Jr. are among the top players set to reach free agency next winter. While they’re all talented players in their own right, there’s no surefire All-Star like the top bats in this winter’s class. That would make it wise for the Jays to be cautious this year and buy some for next season a year in advance.
How do MLBTR readers expect the Jays to fare this winter? Will they come up with another top free agent before Opening Day, or will Okamoto be their top addition to the offense? Have your say in the poll below:
