The Astros entered the offseason clearly in need of a rotation upgrade, due to various injuries and departures Framber Valdez in free agency. Valdez is still unsigned but it seemed likely that he and the Astros would part ways. That seems more likely now that the Astros have added Tatsuya Imai, Mike Burrows again Ryan Weiss in their first group to throw in the towel. General manager Dana Brown was asked about Valdez during an appearance on MLB Network and acknowledged that Valdez was still available but spoke of him as if he was gone.
“Well, look, Framber is still out,” said Brown. “We don’t know how that’s going to play out. But we know we had to start flagging. So, we were able to get three starters because we know Framber is on the market. Getting Mike Burrows is big, and Ryan Weiss, too, was big. So, we added those three guys. If you lose Framber – you’re still off the market, but you’re still off the market, but if you’re off the market. you lose those innings. So, adding these guys, we feel good about it. All of them they are good competitors too.”
It is not particularly surprising that things are going this way. Valdez is one of the top free agents in this winter’s class. At the start of the season, MLBTR projected him with a guaranteed $150MM over five years, $30MM in average annual value. The Astros generally don’t like to spend big on pitching. Their franchise record guarantee for a pitcher is an $85MM extension Lance McCullers Jr. back in 2021. Back in December, it was reported that the club had contact with Valdez’s camp, but that was before the Imai deal.
Despite their natural aversion to spending money on pitchers, the Astros appear to have entered this winter with a tight budget, due to their preference to avoid the balance sheet tax. They had enough cap space to add Imai, but his three-year, $54MM deal comes with an AAV of $18MM. That’s still a respectable number but below Valdez’s projections. Weiss is only guaranteed $2.6MM on a one-year contract. Houston had to give up a few notable prospects to land Burrows but he continues to make the league smaller.
RosterResource currently projects the Astros at a CBT number of approximately $238MM. That puts them about $6MM below next year’s CBT base limit of $244MM. In recent years, the club’s modus operandi has been to approach the line without passing, although it has finally crossed the line in the last two years.
To 2024, they were below the line until Kendall Graveman required season-ending shoulder surgery in mid-January. Immediately sensing that the bullpen was too weak, Houston signed Josh Hader and flew over the tax line. In 2025, they were below the tax line for most of the season but then had a chance to pick up. Carlos Correagoing to the CBT area for the procedure.
Once again, they put themselves under the tax, although the final position cannot be counted until the end of the season. That means they can decide to pay taxes again to get a fair chance.
“Everybody writes that I’m afraid of the luxury tax,” owner Jim Crane said yesterday, as relayed by Chandler Rome of The Athletic. “I’m not afraid of that but I run the team like a business and there are a lot of resources you can put into it without going into the hole. We don’t work like many teams in the market but you’ve seen over the years that we will spend money if we think it’s right and we’ll be aggressive if we have to.
Taking Brown and Crane’s comments together, it seems likely that the Astros may have already made their most important move of the winter. A few deep dives will happen but the system may be too set. It’s extremely possible that the Astros could trade an outfielder, which would open up a logjam for playing time and cap space, but Brown again downplayed that.
“I think there’s an opportunity where we can get all of these guys a ton of at-bats,” Brown said in the MLB Network preview linked above, “whether it’s the DH slot, or giving some guys time off. I don’t think all of these guys are going to play 162 games, right? You’ve got guys who might play 140 and so there’s going to be some protection when you’re going to rest. So, we’re looking at this in a lot of ways. But, you know, we’re still listening to other teams. We have teams calling us some of our players. We will listen.”
The Astros currently have Correa at third base, Jeremy Peña in a short space, Jose Altuve on second base as well Christian Walker in the beginning. That goes Isaac Paredes likely to split time in the corners with Correa and Walker. He has second base experience but hasn’t played there since 2023. Altuve played the outfield in 2025 but did not pitch well there. Jordan Alvarez you should get more DH time. He can also play the outfield, where the Astros have it Jake Meyers, Cam Smith, Jesus Sánchez, Zach Cole again Zach Dezenzo.
Walker makes $20MM annually through 2027. Paredes is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $9.3MM salary in his first season of arbitration. Given the crowded infield picture and tight budget, there is an argument for the Astros trading someone to free up some cash. However, based on Brown’s comments, it seems the club is leaning towards keeping the entire squad and splitting playing time with other days off to keep everyone fresh.
Maybe a trade will come together, if the Browns agree to listen if other teams call. But if the situation remains, that doesn’t leave much room for any significant rotation additions, unless the Astros decide to take another shot at the CBT line. Without that scenario, the Astros will likely open the season with a six-man rotation Hunter BrownImai, Burrows, Weiss and Cristian Javier and the same boys Nate Pearson, AJ Blubaugh, Spencer Arrighetti, Jason AlexanderMcCullers and Miguel Ullola in the first mix.
Speaking of Hunter Brown, Dana Brown was asked about the possibility of signing him to an extension and the GM said they would talk about the topic at some point. “We had some discussions with Hunter Brown about two years ago and we expect that to escalate again. Look, you’ve got Boras, so it’s not going to be easy. But at the end of the day, we’re definitely going to talk to Hunter Brown about an extension.”
It was reported last year that Hunter expressed interest in an extension before the 2024 season but talks went nowhere and he revealed that he was hired by Scott Boras to represent him. Boras’ clients sometimes sign extensions but it’s rare, as GM points out.
Further complicating matters is that Brown has greatly increased his performance since then. He posted a 5.09 earned run average in 2023, his first full season in the majors. He lowered that to 3.49 in 2024 and 2.43 last year, finishing third in 2025 American League Cy Young voting. Tarik Skubal again Garrett Crochet.
Hunter is now three years away from free agency, meaning his earning potential could extend to the upper levels of Houston’s luxury zone. The Astros signed Javier to a $64MM extension that runs through 2023, when he is between three and four years into his career. Brown’s demand would be reasonable on that list and will only get higher as he approaches free agency. Crochet recently set a new bar for guys within two years of the open market, signing a $170MM deal with the Red Sox last winter. Given the gap in those numbers, Houston would be really smart to get something sooner rather than later.
Brown’s big extension has the potential to increase the club’s CBT number. Even if the contract is structured in such a way that his salary increases gradually over the years, the player’s CBT is calculated based on the average annual value of the contract. Perhaps the Astros would like to initially sign Hunter to a 2026 contract, where he is expected to earn a salary of $5.7MM. They may have an extension start in 2027 so it doesn’t affect the 2026 CBT. That would increase CBT’s hitting in future seasons but McCullers’ deal is off the books after 2026 and it’s likely that Imai will opt out after one more season in Houston, freeing up CBT’s future cap room.
Photo courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images
