The Blue Jays were already one of the most aggressive teams in the game before signing the NPB star. Kazuma Okamoto on a four-year, $60MM contract over the weekend. Okamoto joins Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce again Tyler Rogers such as the acquisition of a valuable free agent. They are also one of the clubs most often tied for the top two agent strikers, Kyle Tucker again Bo Bichette.
There has been much speculation that the Jays could be Tucker’s eventual destination. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote yesterday that two of his sources identified Toronto as the favorite for the top player on the market. Meanwhile, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic is reporting tonight that the Jays are making a stronger push for Tucker than they did earlier this winter. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith adds that the sides have had recent discussions, although he suggests the door remains open to either Tucker or Bichette. Toronto’s interest in Tucker dates back to the beginning of the offseason; visited the club’s Spring Training facility in Dunedin on December 3.
RosterResource lists the Jays’ salary cap at around $280MM, which is already $40MM more than where they opened the 2025 season. Their luxury tax estimate sits at $308MM, more than $20MM north of last year’s year-end tax number. More than $304MM is the mark that represents the highest level of punishment. That already has them on the way to paying nearly $30MM in luxury taxes, more than all but four teams (Dodgers, Mets, Yankees and Phillies) paid last season. Any future expenses are taxed at a rate of 90% of the annual average amount. Tucker’s $35MM projected AAV would come with a $31.5MM tax on top of it.
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It’s not clear how much of a hindrance the Jays’ tax obligations are. They have already entered uncharted financial waters after coming inches away from their first World Series in three decades. The Rogers ownership group and front office are clearly committed to winning now. George Springer, Shane Bieber, Kevin Gausman again Daulton Varsho all will be free next season. That’s a lot of money on the books but with key players who aren’t guaranteed to return in 2027, that should increase enthusiasm for another game this year.
Tucker, a career .273/.358/.507 hitter, is the best offensive player available. He entered the daily role of right, pushing Anthony Santander to the left. The Jays will have Springer as their designated hitter. For the car once Addison Barger they can play third base or feature in the corner outfield. It wouldn’t leave much time to play Nathan Lukeswho will be a speculative trade candidate. Lukes is coming off a solid season (.255/.323/.407 in 12 games) but he’s not the type of player to stop teams from making a run at a star.
General manager Ross Atkins spoke publicly this morning about the team’s diligence in seeking continued ways to improve (link via Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith). Atkins noted that any “additions right now start to cut into playing time for players that we feel are the best pieces in the league.” While it’s not a given that they’ll be making any moves, that seems to point to them only pursuing impact talent rather than targeting minor improvements to players in the role.
If the Jays were to land Tucker, that would close the door on reuniting with Bichette. A single team signing three top free agents in the off-season is unprecedented, and adding both players would push Toronto’s tax figure above $350MM. Bannon does suggest that while the Jays aren’t out of the running for Bichette, a new deal with their shortstop looks a lot less likely after the Okamoto signing.
Playing Okamoto and/or Barger regularly at third base Ernie Clement the second, where Bichette could be penciled in if he returns to the Rogers Center. The biggest deterrent may be reluctance on the part of the club to make a long-term commitment to Bichette. Bannon writes that a reunion could be more likely if the infielder gets a short-term deal that lets him out after the first season.
