The biggest question for the Yankees going into last season was whether they would re-sign Cody Bellinger. General manager Brian Cashman has been on the record about the team’s interest in doing so, and has reportedly made at least two contracts official.
It doesn’t appear that Bellinger is in any danger of accepting a deal. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic wrote this morning that the parties do not appear to be close to an agreement, although negotiations are still ongoing. The length of the contract can be a catch. Kuty wrote that Bellinger and his representatives at Boras Corporation may be looking for a six- or seven-year contract. On MLB Network’s preview, Jon Morosi also suggested that Bellinger continue to seek a seven-year deal. Morosi added that the Yankees surprisingly prefer a four- or five-year commitment.
Most outside estimates predict a five- or six-year deal. MLBTR projected a five-year, $140MM contract at the start of the offseason. Bellinger is heading into his age 30 season. There is precedent for players who have managed seven or more years in those years, but the most recent free agent to do so was Brandon Nimmo in 2022. There hasn’t even been a six-year free-agent contract in his 30 years since the Nimmo deal, but Alex Bregman (who was a year older at the time) turned down a six-year offer from the Tigers last winter.
Bellinger is coming off a great first season in the Bronx. He hit .272/.334/.480 with 29 home runs among 656 plate appearances. He lowered his already low strikeout rate to a personal best of 13.7%. Bellinger’s strikeout rate and exit velocity — which kept him from getting a long-term contract two years ago — remain mediocre. His lefty was a perfect fit for Yankee Stadium, where he hit .302/.365/.544 with 18 home runs. His .241/.301/.414 batting line on the road is actually league average.
While that won’t be a huge problem for the Yankees, they may think it will give other teams pause. We are just one year removed from Bellinger having no trade value when he was signed for two years and $52.5MM. New York acquired him from the Cubs as a journeyman pitcher Cody Poteetwho was cut by Chicago at the end of spring training. The only cost to the Yankees was taking all but $5MM out of Bellinger’s deal. Trade talks were complicated by the opt-out clause in his contract, but it’s worth noting that teams weren’t even willing to sign him for two years at $25MM per year last season. A commitment of six years or more to the same annual amount is an important question.
Do teams other than the Yankees feel that Bellinger is a much different player than he was last year? His camp will certainly argue that his success in New York — in addition to his previous work in major markets in Los Angeles and Chicago — should move the needle. Bellinger also isn’t linked to draft compensation, as he was in 2023 when he turned down a qualifying offer from the Cubs.
His results have exceeded average batting metrics for three consecutive seasons. Bellinger will never regain the ferocious power he had before he injured his right shoulder during the 2020 offseason. He has re-established himself as a special bat, and while the home/road split is not encouraging, his team numbers are very impressive.
Bellinger is a .329/.371/.546 hitter against left-handed pitching over the past three seasons. Among left-handed hitters with 250+ plate appearances in that span, only Jordan Alvarez has a high slugging percentage. Bellinger is the only way to Alvarez and Juan Soto with a base percentage. Teams can freely pencil in Bellinger as an everyday player at either corner infield position, and he’s an option for at least a regular center field job.
