The 2025-26 offseason hasn’t been slow so far, with 30 of MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents already signed in addition to several significant trades. As mentioned, however, things were unusually quiet at the top of the class. Except for the Blue Jays early strikeout Dylan Cease back in November, only free agents in MLBTR’s Top 10 signed Kyle Schwarberwho was always expected to reunite with the Phillies in the short term, along with the NPB duo Munetaka Murakami again Tatsuya Imaiboth of whom had tight deadlines to sign the contract due to the rules of the shipping process. Some of the offseason free agents are still here, and while the spotlight is on the four best hitters out there—Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, Alex Bregmanagain Cody Bellinger-Small fans are made about two of the best pitchers available.
With Cease and Imai off the market, only two pitchers from MLBTR’s top 10 are still available. Framber Valdez again Guard Suarez. Both are on the short list of the most talented starters left in the game right now, with strong records of success in both the regular season and postseason. Both players take time to find their jobs to the fullest; each became a full-time starter at age 26, though Valdez reached that point during the shortened 2020 season so he didn’t get a full starting slide until the following year. Suarez also got half of the first season before getting a full job, as he joined the Phillies’ rotation permanently in August of 2021 and made 12 starts and never looked back. Since joining their rotation full-time, each has proven to be a reliable forward arm.
In terms of overall record, Valdez has the edge. Valdez has one more year as a starter under his belt, but even by that metric, volume is the clear differentiator. His 153 starts since joining the Astros’ rotation aren’t far off the 116 starts Suarez made while pitching that extra year, but Valdez’s 973 innings of work dwarfs Suarez’s 654 frames. Things are much closer in terms of results on the field, but Valdez still has the edge with a 3.23 ERA and 3.38 FIP to Suarez’s 3.39 ERA and 3.45 FIP. Suarez’s 22.2% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate, and 51.3% ground ball rate are all solid. But Valdez has the edge in terms of punchouts and grounders, with free passes: 23.8% strikeout rate, 8.0% walk rate, and 61.5% ground ball rate.
That combination of volume and results may paint the picture that Valdez is clearly the superior arm, but there are additional factors to consider. Suarez and Valdez enjoyed nearly identical platform seasons, with a 3.59 ERA and 3.57 FIP for Suarez to Valdez’s 3.66 ERA and 3.37 FIP. The strikeout rates of the two were also very similar, (23.3% for Valdez and 23.2% for Suarez), but Suarez took a big step forward in terms of walk rate and issued free passes at a mere 5.8% clip to Valdez’s 8.5%.
That ability to limit walks is quite impressive, and it’s worth arguing that Suarez is trending higher while Valdez may be starting to show signs of decline. That’s especially important given the age gap between the two; Suarez is two years younger than Valdez, entering free agency at age 30 compared to 32. MLBTR presented both companies with five-year contracts in November. Using those projections, Suarez will be paid when he turns 34 and Valdez will be on the books until age 36 on the same contract. Suarez will also be cheaper, at least according to MLBTR, with Suarez projected at $115MM compared to Valdez’s projected $150MM.
Furthermore, Suarez’s postseason resume is nearly spotless, with a career 1.48 ERA in the playoffs. In contrast, Valdez has a postseason ERA of 4.34. That comes in double-double innings (85 frames versus Suarez’s 42 2/3 career innings), but the veteran lefty’s career in recent years has been largely lacking; posted an 8.27 ERA in his last four playoff starts. A strong postseason resume isn’t the key to the kind of nine-man deals Valdez and Suarez are looking for, but it could easily serve as a buffer for other clubs between two similar pitchers. Another soft factor that could play a role in separating the two is last season’s Astros catch Cesar Salazar was hit by a pitch from Valdez in a cross country situation. Speculation arose when the pitch was intended for Valdez, although both players declared it an accident afterward.
How do MLBTR readers view the two lefties, and what would you like to have in the next five years? Is Valdez’s high volume and results enough to overcome Suarez’s gains in years and in the postseason? Have your say in the poll below:
