The Red Sox went big with their first free agent signing of the winter, it added Guard Suárez five years and $130MM on Wednesday. That followed the commercial acquisition of Sonny Gray again Johan Oviedomeaning the Sox could enter the season replacing 60% of their rotation.
Even with Lucas Giolito from free agency, the Red Sox have eight to ten active options. They will be installed at the top end Garrett CrochetSuárez and Gray. It’s unlikely that Boston would dump Oviedo within a few months of giving up a well-regarded playing prospect (Joshynxon Garcia) to find him. Alternatively, the Sox could add any of their starters on the trade market.
Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic and Sean McAdam of MassLive each wrote this week that a trade was possible. The Sox don’t need to force one unless they are overwhelmed by the offer. Starting depth can be depleted quickly, and many of Boston’s backfield arms have minor league options left. They can load up the rotation at Triple-A Worcester to prepare for injuries during the 162-game schedule.
On the other hand, dealing with a starter could get the Sox their finishing touch in the infield. They lost the bid Alex Bregmanleaving them short at least one player in the dirt. Even if they are free to turn a hot corner Marcelo Mayerthey don’t have a clear answer to the second base. They don’t want to take it Ceddanne Rafaela off the field, where he is one of the best linebackers in the sport. Kristian Campbell He struggled defensively as a rookie, and it appears the organization is selecting him in the outfield. This group David Hamilton again Romy Gonzalez it’s worrying about a team that’s winning now in a competitive division.
If the Suárez signing was their single biggest free agent on the budget, the Red Sox must find a way to add a player who entered the trade zone. The Sox were arrested Ketel Marte before the Diamondbacks took him off the market. They are connected to them Brendan Donovanalthough Ari Alexander of the 7 Boston News suggests they may opt for a right-handed bat and thus may not be as aggressive as other teams on Donovan (eg Giants, Mariners).
The Red Sox are tied for Houston’s third baseman Isaac Paredes all winter. Astros GM Dana Brown has played down the club’s interest in moving the outfielder, but that hasn’t stopped teams from making calls. Brian McTaggart of MLB.com wrote this week that teams are continuing to contact the Astros to see if they can change their minds about Paredes. Houston added potential starters to the middle rotation, Mike Burrows again Tatsuya Imaibut they always shine in launching a manageable thrust.
Let’s examine the possibilities if baseball executive Craig Breslow shakes the starter.
Payton Tolle/Connelly Early
If the Sox deal with their rotation, these could be their two most valuable trade chips. Tolle and Early were both released at the end of the 2025 season. In the beginning it was much better than the four abbreviated beginnings. Tolle has struggled to play in seven games, but that won’t stop teams from being interested in the 23-year-old who broke into the majors in his first full professional season.
Tolle and Early are respectively ranked as the Sox’s top and third prospects by Baseball America. Tolle has big stuff, averaging 97 MPH on a heater that plays even higher based on his excellent extension and above-average health at the position. Early also gets a nice extension and has excellent secondary items, decorated with additional changes. His 94 MPH fastball is close to average, but he is a higher strike thrower than Tolle.
Both pitchers have six years of club control and three minor league options. Teams don’t want to part with starters with this level of skill. It’s unlikely the Sox will trade any pitchers for the first year in free agency. Could they please it with a controllable superstar? McCaffrey and McAdam both floated the possibility that the Sox could try to reunite with Arizona on Marte by dangling one of Tolle or Early alongside the outfielder. Jarren Duran or Rafaela. Even if the Diamondbacks are willing to move forward with Marte, the general consensus is that the Sox will trade one of their most talented starters for an impact bat.
Brian Bello
Bello will make $6MM next season and is signed for a total of $50.5MM over the next four years. There is a 2030 club option that gives the Sox a fifth season of control. Bello will be locked in fourth place if he is not traded. The 26-year-old righty has briefly come up in talks this offseason, though there is uncertainty about how willing the Sox are to move him.
Last season, Bello ranked second on the team with 166 2/3 innings pitched. He earned a 3.35 earned run average but didn’t have positive reviews from estimators like FIP (4.19) and SIERA (4.55). That’s due to a 17.7% lower strikeout rate. Bello’s 8.6% swinging strikeout percentage was also a personal low and ranked in the bottom 25 among all MLB pitchers (min. 100 innings pitched). It’s hard to maintain rotational results during that rate of swings and misses.
Bello has good velocity, averaging 95 MPH on his sinker and a four-seam fastball. The sinker is the better of the two offerings, and you lean on it more as a lowball pitch than one that gets a lot of whiffs. Although Bello has missed a lot of at-bats in past seasons, he has always had a way of playing the ball. There is some volatility in that, and the Sox are not starting to have a good infield defense behind him. Bello is probably closer to a league average arm than the ERA would indicate. That’s still significant for the average annual value of $12.625MM remaining on his contract. Notably, if the Sox choose to move Bello, they will be cutting what is currently a luxury of $9.166MM off their current books (the total AAV of his extension, which includes the 2024-29 seasons).
Cutter Crawford/Patrick Sandoval
Both pitchers have missed the entire 2025 season. Crawford, signed for $2.75MM in the second of his four years of arbitration, began the year on the shelf with right knee discomfort. He injured his right wrist a few months later and had surgery. Crawford was a swingman in his first few seasons but moved into a full-time swing role in 2024. He pitched well for a few months until a second-half home run spike pushed his ERA to 4.36 in 183 2/3 innings.
Crawford has had a slightly above average strikeout and hitting streak the last few seasons. The home run and injury history are a concern, but he can be controlled cheaply through 2028 and could be a major league starter if healthy. He also has minor league options, so there is a fair amount of flexibility for the Sox or any team that gets him. He’s well behind Tolle, Early and Bello in terms of trade value but could be attractive if the Sox try to trade him for a utility pitcher or a manageable bullpen piece.
The Sox knew Sandoval was unlikely to produce much (if at all) in 2025 when they signed him to a two-year, $18.25MM contract early on from June ’24 Tommy John surgery. They reworked the deal, paying him $5.5MM in his rehab year and a $12.75MM salary for next season. The 29-year-old Sandoval was a consistent starter in his final three seasons as a member of the Angels. He pitched to a 3.84 ERA with a 21.9% strikeout rate in nearly 400 innings between 2022-24. His command is heavy but sits around 94 MPH and he has above-average backers with his changeup and slider.
Boston may not want to trade Sandoval for a decent return after paying more than $5MM to cover his rebuilding year. The front office liked him enough to sign him to that deal in the first place. However, the rotation picture has changed, and Sandoval’s five years of service means he cannot be sent to the minors. They might be better off trusting Oviedo or Crawford as a fifth starter and getting some of Sandoval’s contract off the books for relief or a bullpen pickup.
Kyle Harrison
Of the players acquired from the Giants in Rafael Devers in commerce, Harrison was probably the master. The deal was about moving on from Devers and voiding his contract. The Sox kept Harrison in Triple-A for most of the ’25 season as their rotation was battered by injuries. They finally raised him in Mandulu. Harrison scored well in his first two rounds before being hit in the third. The Sox carried him on their roster for the Wild Card Series but didn’t use him, opting to go with rookie Early in a must-win Game 3.
Harrison has a decent arm, sitting in the 94-95 MPH range. His secondary stuff and command have been inconsistent, and he owns a 4.39 ERA across 194 2/3 career innings. Harrison is under club control for at least five seasons and has options remaining. He would have a lot of teams interested if the Sox bought him out, but his stock has fallen as he has been one of the best players in the sport over the past few seasons. Boston might be better off keeping him and hoping to move forward in his age-24 season.
Tanner Houck
An offseason Houck trade wouldn’t accomplish much and sounds unlikely. He is coming off a bad year that culminated in an August Tommy John procedure. He is expected to miss the ’26 season and could be very attractive to another team. Houck agreed to a $4.1MM salary to avoid arbitration and must make the same amount in his final year in control of the club. They can place him on the 60-day injured list when Spring Training opens.
