Fresh off a run to the World Series, the Blue Jays have been very active on the free agent market. They signed a top free agent starter Dylan Cease a seven-year contract was also entered into Kazuma Okamoto, Tyler Rogersagain Cody Ponce. However, the past few days have not been in their favor. Toronto was one of the best players Kyle Tucker and gave him $350MM a decade before he signed with the Dodgers. They were hoping to re-sign Bo Bichettebut he opted for a short-term, maximum AAV deal with the Mets yesterday.
After missing Tucker and Bichette, it’s clear the team can shift its focus back to adding more hitting. On the left Framber Valdez is still available, and Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports that the Blue Jays met with him in GM meetings back in November. Nicholson-Smith clarifies that the meeting was before Cease was signed, but there was mutual interest between the two parties at the time.
Valdez has so far been publicly linked to the Orioles, Giants, Mets, and Red Sox. The Orioles’ interest was reported even after the signing Pete Alonso for $155MM over five years. The Giants are most interested in a short-term deal, while the Mets reportedly prefer to add a pitcher via trade. The Red Sox reunited with Valdez in November, but they may no longer fit after the signing Guard Suarez and trading with Sonny Gray again Johan Oviedo.
As for the Blue Jays, their current interest in Valdez is unclear, as is their ability to land him. RosterResource has their 2026 payroll of $282MM and their CBT fee of $310.5MM, which puts them over the luxury tax line of $304MM. While their offer for Tucker would have carried a $35MM AAV and a $31.5MM luxury tax bill, he may have been a special case as the clear hitter on the market.
Meanwhile, Valdez is older than all three of Tucker, Bichette, and Cease. He was predicted to receive a five-year, $150MM deal on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list. As a second-year luxury tax payer, the Jays will owe $27MM in tax penalties on that $30MM AAV, making Valdez a total cost of $57MM in 2026 if they sign him. He also turned down a qualifying offer from the Astros, so he would call the Jays their second and fifth-highest draft picks in 2026. With the proposed Cease cycle, Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieberand Ponce, Valdez may be more expensive and more demanding than Toronto needs.
Of course, none of this takes away from Valdez’s record. From 2022-25, he was worth 16.5 fWAR, which was fifth among eligible starters between Gausman and Cease. Most of that success came from Valdez’s home run pressure and ground ball rates. In those four seasons, his 0.68 HR/9 is tied for fifth best among professional starters. His 60.0% ground ball rate is the highest among starters with at least 500 innings. For Valdez, that number has never dipped below 54.2% in a full season.
He has also built a reputation for toughness. Valdez’s 767 2/3 innings since the start of 2022 is second in the majors behind only the Giants ace. Logan Webb. This past year was very similar. In 31 starts with the Astros, Valdez pitched 192 innings with a 3.66 ERA, a 58.6% groundball rate, and a 14.8% K-BB average.
He showed signs of aging as the season progressed, posting a 5.20 ERA in 71 innings in the second half. The last two months have been very difficult. In August, Valdez only struck out 12.8% of batters. In September and October, he became an erratic home run hitter, allowing six long balls in 27 2/3 innings (1.95 HR/9). On the plus side, his sinker remained an outstanding pitch, with a 15-run average according to Statcast and an above-average vertical break. While a long-term deal would put Valdez in his mid-30s, he should at least maintain a solid floor due to his durability and groundball tendencies.
The market has been strong for strikers looking for long-term deals. Cease was coming off a down year with the Padres and has been in seven years with the Jays. Suarez just received a five-year, $130MM deal from Boston, matching our contract projections for length and $15MM more in value. Tatsuya Imai he’s probably the only starter expected to get a long-term deal based on a short contract (three years, $54MM with the Astros). Age aside, Valdez has a long track record and should do better than Imai, at least in terms of AAV.
Photo courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images
