There may not be a player in baseball today, from a statistical standpoint, who is more controversial than that Luis Arraez. Winner of three consecutive hitting titles from 2022-24, Arraez is an All-Star with a career .317 batting average and a lifetime 6.1% strikeout rate that puts him back in baseball’s era decades ago.
That earned him a huge following in the game, but modern statistics doubt that his case will ever be considered the stars of the game. He’s a limited outfielder best used playing first base or DH despite being 28 years old, and even with his superior defensive skills he was a second-best pass rusher. Although his 6.5% walk rate is higher than his strikeout rate, it is still below average, which keeps his OBP from reaching high levels. Perhaps most importantly, Arraez has less power than any other player in the game. Only 12 professional players have a lower career ISO than Arraez since his major league debut in 2019, and among that group. Nicky Lopez, Isiah Kiner-Falefaagain Myles Straw they are the only ones who have been everyday players for a significant amount of time. He is tied with Kiner-Falefa for the fewest home runs by any player with at least 3,000 plate appearances in the past decade.
That combination of low defense and low scale power makes Arraez an unpopular bet for most teams. First base and DH are the two spots on the roster teams rely heavily on to generate home run power, and putting Arraez in one of those spots means the team will have to be able to compensate in other spots to field a balanced lineup. That is far from impossible; the Padres, for whom Arraez played the past two seasons, have a wRC+ of 107 over the past two seasons that is tied with the Blue Jays for seventh best in baseball. They, however, ranked just 21st in the majors when it came to home runs and 23rd in ISO during Arraez’s time with the club.
How much will a team value a first-round hitter, who has no power on the open market in statistical years? Arraez’s free agency is about to show, but the early signs are not funny. Rumors are very quiet about Arraez. San Diego was reportedly interested in a reunion in November, but that was at the time when the right-hander Michael King was expected to sign elsewhere. It is not clear if they will have the money in the budget to add Arraez after that cost. Likewise, the Rangers were linked to Arraez earlier in the season. Even then, there were questions about the club’s ability to fit Arraez into the budget. Last week’s report that the club would not pursue further action this winter also cast doubt on their standing as a realistic option for Arraez.
Searching for speculative equity presents a challenge. Many teams like the Dodgers, Tigers, Royals, and Astros have combined first base with DH combinations that make squeezing Arraez into the lineup impossible. For other teams, they have a combination of established talent and exciting young players that would be hard to justify stepping out of a regular role in favor of Arraez. Can the Cubs afford to bring him to DH just like that Moises Ballesteros offers a heavy, left-handed bat in the minor league? Can the Giants justify keeping Bryce Eldridge to the minors to make room for Arraez on the side Rafael Devers? The Yankees left Ben Rice without a clear place for submissive play Paul Goldschmidt last year, but it is impossible to imagine them doing the same to Arraez after Rice breaks out in 2025.
Perhaps the best fit for Arraez is the teams he already plays for. San Diego’s interest was previously mentioned, but the Marlins are currently planning to use it Christopher Morel initially the basis with Agustin Ramirez in DH, while the twins have Josh Bell in place and no lock on DH. Arraez could easily fit into any of those mixes, but it would be at least a surprise to see either club make a big offer for their former player. Perhaps a rebuilding team like the Nationals or Cardinals could sign Arraez, but if most of their contenders have trouble listing him, that may not bode well for his summer trade market.
Those headwinds in the market might not have mattered if Arraez had a better platform year, but 2025 was arguably his weakest season. While he played in 154 games and had a team-high 11 stolen bases, his .289 BABIP was a career low and that led to a career-worst .292 batting average. With that drop in average came a drop in production across the board, as his .292/.327/.392 slash line was good for just a 104 wRC+. That’s not impactful production from a first baseman or DH, and if Arraez is putting up production like the 123 wRC+ he posted in his three winning years to earn the rova title that’s encouraging for him to earn the rova title.
Perhaps, then, Arraez would be better off signing a one-year deal and testing the market again next season. That would be less than the two-year, $24MM MLBTR contract forecast for Arraez at the start of the season, and he has expressed a desire for long-term security after being traded twice in his career. Still, it could still represent the best (or only) option for Arraez given his down season and the tough market for first base/DH types. That’s especially true given that Arraez is still young enough to receive a long-term offer next season if he starts the big 2026 campaign. That said, there could be a team willing to gamble on Arraez and give him a multi-year deal like the one MLBTR predicted in November. Another possibility is that the Padres, known for their willingness to make multi-year dollars, come to Arraez with a multi-year creative gift like the one they gave us. Nick Pivetta last winter.
How do MLBTR readers think Arraez’s market will shake out? Will he be able to get the multi-year contract that many expected him to get at the start of the winter, or will the tough market force him to take a one-year deal? Have your say in the poll below:
