When the Cubs returned to the postseason in 2025, they did so sparingly. The club has lost staff Justin Steele just four starts into his 2025 season for UCL reconstruction surgery. That procedure, which Steele performed in mid-April of last year, came with a recovery timeline of nearly a year. There have been few updates on Steele’s condition since then, but the left-hander (as noted by MLB.com) took a big step toward improving his condition last week when he took the mound for the first time since going under the knife.
In an interview with Marquee Sports Network’s Elise Menaker, Steele mentioned that while he doesn’t have an exact timeline for his return to the big leagues, he expects to face the batters during Spring Training and added that he has not only had setbacks but “before schedule, if anything.” That’s a good sign for Cubs fans hoping to see Steele back on the mound for the start of the 2026 campaign. The team returns its entire rotation from 2025 but could benefit this year with a full season from the Rookie of the Year runner-up. Late Horton and the addition of the right hand Edward CabreraThe Cubs made a deal to stay with the Marlins earlier this month.
With Cabrera, Horton, Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillonagain Colin Rea all slated to be on the big league roster to start the year (to say nothing of depth options like Javier Assad, Jordan Wicksagain Ben Brown behind that team), the team’s full rotation mix may lead the Cubs to be more wary of Steele’s resurgence than they otherwise would have been. After all, there are nine other starters on the 40-man roster, before they enter the top prospect. Jaxon Wiggins debuts at some point this year and the ability of the non-roster arm Connor Noland to chip in other innings as well.
Steele himself admitted in his interview with Menaker that Dr. Keith Meister (who had Steele back surgery in April) will likely impose some sort of full-season innings limit on the lefty as he returns to the mound. After adding Cabrera again Alex Bregman for a team that came within one game of the NLCS last year, the Cubs certainly hope to play in mid-October this year. They’ll also want a healthy Steele to be a part of those lineups, so if Chicago’s rotation is healthy for the first half of the season it would make sense for the team to play down Steele’s rehab and focus on having more innings in the postseason.
Of course, life in circulation is not a guarantee. Imanaga, Horton, Taillon, and Cabrera all spent time on the injured list last year, and 2025 was Boyd’s first 30-game start in a year since 2018. Any of those pitchers who need significant time on the shelf again this year won’t be ruled out, and Steele’s slow-to-play rehab could leave the team short-handed and potentially healthy. in the year. While the likes of Assad, Brown, and Wicks are quality depth, it’s hard to argue that a full-strength version of Steele wouldn’t be a safer bet to produce than the trio of new players.
Steele has been one of the most successful starters in baseball since starting during the 2022 season, and since then only nine pitchers (min. 300 innings pitched) have had a lower ERA. That group of nine names is for the league’s top aces, from Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal again Shohei Ohtani to Chris Sale, Fried Maxagain Zack Wheeler. It would be hard to put that kind of focus on the sidelines any longer than necessary, especially when Chicago will be looking to oust a Brewers team that won last year’s NL Central crown and knock them out of the playoffs back in October. However the Cubs ultimately decide to re-manage Steele, they won’t make any firm decisions until Spring Training begins and they have a better understanding of the other pitchers on the roster in terms of their health.
