MLB Mailbag: Red Sox, Brewers, Phillies, Braves

This week’s postbag goes into the Red Sox and their offense, Masataka YoshidaThe amount of trade, how far Jacob deGrom from Hall of Fame consideration, the Brewers and Christian Yelich‘contract, Phillies’ and Braves’ dynamic, and how revenue sharing money is spent. I will also offer some brief thoughts on the state of the MLBPA once they choose their new director.

Christopher asks:

Do the Red Sox have enough offense to make the playoffs?

David asks:

It’s two weeks before the trade deadline and the Red Sox are in contention but it’s painfully obvious that they haven’t solved their problem of needing a power hitter. Thank goodness it’s only February but look at your shiny ball. Who might they be targeted for?

Dave asks:

Given the reality Luis Arraez recently signed to a $12M annual contract, do you still feel there is no benefit for a team to pick up Yoshida? Both have bad marks defensively and Arraez has a higher strikeout rate but Yoshida offers more power, to balance it out. At worst someone should take Yoshida for at least $8M.

Lloyd asks:

Boston has an OF glut and Duran has been mentioned as the most likely trade. Detroit has an INF glut and Torres is traded after June 15. Is there a match here, assuming both players are healthy and productive? Could Boston move Duran to Anderson or Lee, the Tigers’ Top-10 prospects who rank at the bottom of MLB’s top 110 prospects? Detroit could use an OF bat for more pressure. Assuming the salary/contract is free, is this something that would work?

The Red Sox continue to have room for major additions at second or third base, given that recent addition Caleb Durbin can play any place. Such a van would hit Durbin or Marcelo Mayer on the bench that already has players inside Isiah Kiner-Falefa again Romy Gonzalez. (Or Mayer could return to Triple-A, where he has only played 43 games).

It’s worth remembering that the most accurate projection system, Bat X, has Durbin posting an 85 wRC+ this year, Mayer at 86, and Kiner-Falefa at 69. Gonzalez is 102, but he’s done almost all of his damage against left-handed pitching. Even a veteran of the stop Trevor’s story it’s only 97 in that projection system. Throw the holder Carlos Narvaez in 83 again Ceddanne Rafaela in 88, and there’s a very good chance five of the nine Red Sox spots feature a subpar offense.

Of course, there is a resting place for Mayer or a Kristian Campbell bounceback (Campbell focused out of bounds). Durbin and Narvaez can build on last year’s success. The story may strike as he did from June onwards. Rafaela flashed glamor on the plate for several months.

But that’s a few “ifs”, and the club is counting on good health from the 33-34-year-old Story once Wilson Contreras.

Offense isn’t everything, which is why FanGraphs gives the Red Sox a healthy 60.1 shot at the playoffs this year. The club projects to get more value out of its stadium and DH facilities; they are fifth in baseball in total WAR at those four spots. The opposite is true of Boston’s infield, which is ranked 26th. And that explains the club’s potentially better defense.

The Red Sox rank first in all of baseball in starting pitcher WAR. About 72% of that amount comes from the top three: Garrett Crochet, Sonny Grayagain Guard Suarez. While the Sox have plenty of solid depth options behind them, it’s fair to say major injuries to Crochet, Gray, Suarez, Roman Anthonyor Rafaela can take them out of the picture. I’m sure you could say that about the top five players on any team, but three of those are investors. Crochet and Suarez have long injury histories, while Gray is 36.