The Blue Jays have officially announced that they have re-signed him Max Scherzer on a one-year contract. The Boras Corporation client is reportedly guaranteed $3MM and could receive up to $10MM in compensation. He would earn his first $1MM bonus in 65 innings and hit another $1MM bonus in every tenth inning, for a total of 155 frames. Toronto cleared the 40-man cap over the weekend by releasing a kicker Ben Cowleswho was contested by the Cubs.
The Hall of Famer’s second season in Toronto. The three-time Cy Young winner signed a $15.5MM deal with the Jays through the 2024-25 season. He was coming off a season-shortened season in which he was limited to nine games for the Rangers. Scherzer had back surgery last season, and a nerve problem in his throwing arm limited him as he recovered from the back procedure.
The arm was always an issue last season. Scherzer left his team for the first time after three innings because of a sore thumb. That was traced to an emotional issue and ultimately led the Jays to shut down Scherzer for several months. He did not return to the MLB mound until late June.
Scherzer was able to avoid the injured list after that point but did not perform at his usual level. He allowed more than five earned runs in nine innings for the first time in his career. He finished the season with a 5.19 ERA over 85 innings. Scherzer only once allowed more than four runs in a start, but he went more than five innings seven times. He made six quality starts in 17 games.
The 17-year-old can still miss at-bats according to the league average. He struck out 23%, which was slightly above average for batters who faced a clean walk rate of 6.4%. The issue is the damage the hitters do when they make contact. Scherzer allowed more than two home runs in nine innings for the first time in his career. It was the fourth highest homer rate in MLB among pitchers who threw 70+ innings.
Scherzer’s fastball averaged 93.6 mph last season. That’s a higher mark than his 2024 mark, which offsets a slight decline in his velocity during his mid-30s. Still, he had a tough time getting hitters to chase his breaking pitches out of the strike zone. Scherzer obviously doesn’t have the same kind of stuff he did in his prime, which makes him more vulnerable when he’s forced to challenge hitters. He has allowed an above-average home run rate in three consecutive seasons.
At 41, Scherzer profiles as a starting back on paper. However, he has experience in the big game and has shown that he can still make it to the biggest stage. The Jays left Scherzer out of the lineup for their Division Series opener against the Yankees. They brought him back to the AL Championship Series against Seattle and the World Series with the Dodgers.
Scherzer tossed 5 2/3 frames of two-run ball to earn the win in ALCS Game 4. He struggled a bit in Game 3 of the World Series before coming back with one run allowed in 4 1/3 innings in Game 7. Scherzer left the mound with a 3-1 lead for a performance that would have gone down in bullpen sports history had he played a major role in bullpen sports.
They will aim to get over the hump by 2026. Assuming Scherzer builds in time for Opening Day, he’ll likely slot into the six-man rotation to start the season. Shane Bieber will begin the year on the injured list after dealing with arm fatigue during the tournament. Toronto was expected to open the season with the first five games Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, José Berríos again Cody Ponce.
Yesavage is entering his first full MLB season. Ponce is an amazing card in his return from Korea. Scherzer probably won’t pitch 150+ innings at this stage of his career. Opening with a six-man rotation will allow the Jays to take some of the load off a rotation that carried as heavy a load as possible in October.
That comes with a drag on the bullpen, though. The 13-pitcher limit means the Jays will be down seven men if they go this route. That increases the importance of having the same long-term release quality Eric Lauer manage more innings.
At the same time, this makes it less likely that Lauer will have a chance to win a trade spot. The lefty is a free agent and has said he prefers a chance to start. There has been no indication that Lauer will seek a trade if the Jays keep him in a relief role, although the southpaw told Mitch Bannon of The Athletic that he believes being out of the bullpen last season cost him arbitration money. Lauer lost his hearing, meaning he will make the team’s desired salary of $4.4MM rather than his $5.75MM camp figure.
That would be a situation to watch if everyone stays healthy around Opening Day. For now, this looks like the perfect outcome for the Jays and Scherzer alike. The $3MM base salary would push their franchise-record luxury tax to nearly $319MM, according to RosterResource. The Jays are taxed at a rate of 90% on spending over $304MM. This signing comes with a base salary of $2.7MM. Performance bonuses earned there is half of the CBT team figure, so the Jays also pay that 90% of any dollars Scherzer turns in by pitching important innings throughout the year.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the deal. Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi had a $3MM base and $10MM in incentives. Heyman reported on the motivational structure. Photo courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff, Imagn Images.
