Final preview of Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev: Who will win the Indian Wells title? | ATP Tour

Game preview

The final preview of Sinner vs. Medvedev: Two forces collide for Indian Wells glory

Sinner is looking for the first title of 2026 while Medvedev continues to re-emerge

March 15, 2026

Heading into Saturday’s action at the BNP Paribas Open, Carlos Alcaraz appeared to be the favorite in the first event of the ATP Masters 1000 season. The two-time champion Spaniard was in impressive form, winning his first 16 matches of the season.

But after Daniil Medvedev stunned the World No. 1 on Saturday, it will be Medvedev and World No. Which star will leave the California desert with a significant victory?

It’s a time of opportunity for both men. Medvedev was confirmed to return to the Top 10 in the PIF ATP Rankings on Monday for the first time since July last year. But most importantly, he is second in the PIF ATP Live Race To Turin, the standings of the season so far.

Becoming the first player to beat Alcaraz and Sinner in the same tournament since Novak Djokovic at the 2023 Nitto ATP Finals would be a clear statement that the former World No. 1 Medvedev is back at his best. But there will be a significant obstacle standing in his way on the other side of the net: Soni.

With Alcaraz’s dominance of late, it’s easy to forget that Sinner won his last three tournaments of 2025 – Vienna, Paris and the Nitto ATP Finals – and lost just one set in 15 matches at those events.

That the Italian’s five-set semi-final loss to Djokovic at the Australian Open was a disappointment speaks volumes for the incredibly high standards he has set in recent years. But Sinner made his first Indian Wells final without dropping a set and after beating Alexander Zverev in the semi-finals he will be looking for his first title of the season.

“It means a lot to me,” said Sinner, who has won five other hard-court Masters 1000 tournaments. [the] semi-finalist, so I’m very happy to be in the final for the first time. Now we [will] see what’s coming tomorrow.”

Alcaraz owns a comfortable 2,550 point advantage over Sinner in the PIF ATP Live Rankings. But a win against Medvedev could be the start of the Italian reigning in his pursuit of the World No.

The Lexus ATP Head2Head rivalry between Sinner and Medvedev followed a winding road through 15 games. Medvedev had the first six meetings before Sinner won eight of the next nine to lead 8-7. Sunday’s match will be the first time they have played since the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals.

Sinner won 6-3, 6-4 in emphatic fashion on the day en route to his first title in Turin, while Medvedev failed to advance through the round robin and missed out on the Nitto ATP Finals in 2025, breaking a six-year streak.

But Medvedev is not playing the tennis he did when he fell to World No. 18 in the last six months. In winning titles in Brisbane and Dubai this year before raising his game to the highest level in Indian Wells, Medvedev combined his often frustrating ground game with early aggression to prevent opponents from finding their comfort zone.

“There should always be a balance, because I tried a little in my career at one time to be, let’s call it extreme, and it was not good,” said Medvedev. “Right now, I’m confident and when I’m confident, I always say I feel like an aggressive player, especially in my serve.”

Sinner is one of the most aggressive players on the ATP Tour and in recent years has been able to step up and stand out against Medvedev. But the 24-year-old is well aware of the danger posed by the ATP No. 1 Club.

“He’s back at a very high level. Very big service, I feel like. He’s coming back very well. Very, very deep,” Sinner said. “Everyone is trying to be more aggressive… Sascha today tried to be more aggressive. He didn’t play his best tennis today, I feel like, but everyone is trying to push.

“And I think that Daniil has again found a good, good balance on the field, he won the title in Dubai, he came here, he got good results again.”

With his win against Alcaraz, Medvedev is now 8-8 against World No. 1s in his career according to the Infosys ATP Win/Loss Index. And most importantly, the six-time Masters 1000 title holder feels good about his game leading up to his clash with Sinner, a five-time Masters 1000 winner.

“Maybe I play ten games against Carlos, maybe I will lose more than I will win,” said Medvedev. “But whenever I go to the court, I need to believe in myself, I need to do my best, and try to win as much as possible.”

More on Indian Wells Final
When is the Indian Wells tournament?
How much money will the Indian Wells champion get?
Alcaraz on Medvedev’s defeat: ‘I have never seen Daniil play like this’