Zack Wheeler perhaps the biggest wild card of all time as the Phillies try for a third straight NL East title. The ace is working back from thoracic surgery that ended his 2025 season. The procedure came with a recovery timeline of six to eight months from the end of September, calling his early ’26 availability doubtful.
As camp got underway, manager Rob Thomson offered a vague timetable for Wheeler’s return. “I don’t think he’ll be ready for Opening Day but it won’t be too far beyond that,” Thomson told reporters (link via Paul Casella of MLB.com). The 35-year-old righty is pitching and “doing well” in the manager’s words, but the Phils will be wary of the three-time All-Star. He hasn’t progressed to the grunt job yet.
Between Wheeler’s injury and the free agent departure of Guard Suárezthey are workers who start slower than usual. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters (including Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer) they will look to deepen that group during the spring. “When our scouts come out there, that’s going to be one of our focuses. And we might develop that internally, too; there’s guys we like. But that’s going to be our focus, starting to get deep,” Dombrowski said.
That doesn’t mean the Phillies are likely to add Zac Gallen, Lucas Giolito or Chris Bassitt. Their three-year contract is generally expected to return JT Realmuto it was the last big move of an offseason built around re-signings Kyle Schwarber that also saw them sign a right winger Adolis García and a reliever Brad Keller.
There are potential swing options available in free agency (eg Jose Quintana, Aaron Civale), although Dombrowski suggested there may be commercial opportunities. He noted that a slow free-agent market for starting pitching could make some arms from those signing teams available through trades — although that could be limited as teams start losing pitchers to injury, as happens every year during Spring Training. The trade would also give the Phillies more roster flexibility if they could add someone who already has options left. Most free agents have five or more years of service that entitles them to decline a minor league assignment.
Assuming Wheeler starts the season on the injured list, Cy Young is the runner-up Christopher Sánchez he should start his first opening day. You will be followed around Jesus Luzardo again Aaron Nola. Taijuan Walker worked in a swing role last year but seems a little unsure of the rotation spot to open the season.
That would leave the fifth spot available in the camp battle. High hopes Andrew Painter you have a legitimate chance of winning the job. Philly needed to add him to the 40-man roster this offseason because he reached Rule 5 eligibility. His stock has dipped slightly since he was widely viewed as the #1 riding prospect in the sport. An elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery cost him the 2023-24 seasons.
Painter’s numbers at Triple-A Lehigh Valley last year weren’t as impressive. He posted a 5.40 ERA with a good but unusual 23.4% strikeout rate in 22 starts. He appeared to be more of a home run threat than the Phillies would have liked, though his raw material remained very impressive. Painter averaged nearly 97 mph on his four-seam fastball while mixing in three breaking pitches (cutter, slider, curveball) and a changeup. He got whiffs on a solid 13% of his offerings. He remains one of the better pitching prospects in MLB and one of Philly’s top three talents in the league at shortstop. Aidan Miller and foreign player Justin Crawford.
If Painter is scratched during Spring Training, the Phils could opt to return to the Lehigh Valley. They currently have no real options to hold down the fort until Wheeler’s first season, however. Some of their starters on the 40-man roster (eg Jean Cabrera, Yoniel Curet, Alan Rangel) and have little MLB experience. Unlisted invitees Tucker Davidson again Bryse Wilson don’t inspire a tone of confidence. Keller has first hand experience but was signed to release a high standard.
It’s understandable that the Phillies want to leave the door open for Painter to win the job, especially if they expect Wheeler to be back in the first few weeks of the regular season. At the same time, even a single injury will leave the rotation looking dangerous. Nola is coming off a bad season and Walker’s time in Philly has been a mixed bag. Wheeler is not guaranteed to look the way he did before surgery. Adding some kind of swing depth is necessary.
