The top of the free agent market hasn’t moved as quickly as it has in the past few seasons. Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, Alex Bregman again Cody Bellinger stay unsigned.
It’s not a big surprise for the last two hitters as the Boras Corporation is willing to wait until deep into the season if solid deals don’t happen soon. Tucker and Bichette, the two leading free agents, are respectively represented by Excel Sports Management and Vayner Sports. A slow season can’t be done with Boras. Bellinger may be waiting for Tucker while Bregman is waiting for a decision on the Bichette landing spot. There is a fair amount of overlap, especially between a handful of big-market franchises that have been relatively quiet in free agency thus far, in those markets respectively.
Bellinger is a free agent for the third time in four years. He is hoping to finally control the long-term contract that has targeted him in the previous two tours. He had been limited to a one-year deal through 2022 after two down seasons led the Dodgers to non-tender him. A breakout ’23 campaign with the Cubs didn’t lead teams to buy into him as a franchise-changing addition. He returned to Chicago on a three-year exit deal, then was traded to the Yankees after a difficult 2024 campaign.
A long imaginary connection worked well. Bellinger’s left-handed pitching system has performed exceptionally well at Yankee Stadium. He hit 29 home runs, his most in six years, while hitting .272/.334/.480 in 656 plate appearances. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each value him about five wins above his replacement.
Teams can still argue about his fundamental differences. Bellinger was the league’s best shortstop away from the Bronx. His batted ball metrics remain in the middle of the pack, and his results exceeded his “expected” stats from Statcast for the third straight season. The batting average has been a stumbling block for teams in past seasons — both in his ’23 free agent streak, and when the Cubs acquired him last winter.
Will a third straight season of overwork lead teams to conclude that Bellinger’s communication skills outweigh exit velocity concerns? He is one of the best left-handed hitters in MLB, hitting .329/.371/.546 against southpaws over the past three seasons. The left-handed batter (.230/.299/.365) is hitting as well Marcus Semien or Otto Lopez when he does not hold the advantage of the platoon.
Bellinger is not attached to draft compensation because he was not eligible for the qualifying offer. His camp will look to play the big role he has shown in three major markets during his career. A five- or six-year contract seems like an average outcome for the 30-year-old MVP. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi suggested Wednesday that his camp could be looking at seven years.
Where could he end up?
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