Why Novak Djokovic’s legendary comeback will be critical to his pursuit of a 25th Grand Slam | ATP Tour
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Why Djokovic’s legendary comeback will be critical to his pursuit of a 25th Grand Slam
Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analyzes the Serbian trademark
January 29, 2026
Peter Staples/ATP Tour
Novak Djokovic has won a higher percentage of return games in his career than any other active player.
Written by Andrew Eichenholz
Novak Djokovic is widely regarded as one of the greatest comeback players in tennis history. The Serbian has won the highest percentage of return games of any active player and has put the best servers under pressure throughout his career.
The 38-year-old will need to make his return to Rod Laver Arena on Friday evening if he is to hope to snap a five-fight winning streak against two-time defending champion Jannik Sinner.
Analysis by Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers shows that the return – long one of the Serbian’s greatest strengths – has been where he and Sinner have struggled in their recent tournaments.
The Italian leads their Lexus ATP Head2Head series 6-4, including five consecutive victories since Sinner’s Davis Cup victory in November 2023. The No. 2 player in the PIF ATP Rankings could become the first player to win back-to-back tour-level matches against Djokovic.
But the ten-time Australian Open champion could make a good start to protect that record by relying on his trademark comeback. During his defeat against Sinner, the 24-time major champion did not break serve more than twice in the match and in both of his defeats he did not get a break point.
Djokovic has broken twice on eight occasions in 61 return games in his past four meetings with Sinner, winning just 3.3 percent of his return games in those games. That’s a far cry from the Serbian’s long-term excellence during his return.
Djokovic has proven to hold the Kryptonite of the world’s best servers throughout the years. Entering the Australian Open, Djokovic had won 31.6 percent of his career return games, the seventh-highest mark. From 2009 to 2021, the 101-time tourney hitter won at least 30 percent of his home games each season, including an impressive 38.8 percent in 2011. Each year starting in 2021, he finishes sixth or better on Tour.
Career Recovery Games Win % – Active Players
So far at the Australian Open, Djokovic has won 36 percent of his return games, breaking 18 times in 50 matches. Those matches did not come against a player like Sinner, who led the ATP Tour in service game percentage won over the past two seasons, according to Infosys ATP Stats.
But it’s still a good sign for Djokovic, who scored a higher number of debutants over the two days than fellow semi-finalists Sinner (32%), Carlos Alcaraz (35%) and Alexander Zverev (32%).
That being said, Djokovic knows the challenge ahead of him, especially with Sinner and Alcaraz, who have scored the last eight goals.
“Are they better right now than me and the other guys? Yes, they are better. I mean the quality and level is amazing. It’s great. It’s amazing,” Djokovic said after advancing to the semifinals. But does that mean I’m out with the white flag?
The return of vintage will be the key to doing just that.
