The Blue Jays have maintained some interest in it Max Scherzer throughout the winter, and talks between the two sides have become more serious this past week, according to Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith. No deal is in place, and there are still other clubs hoping to sign the future Hall of Famer, but Toronto has apparently accelerated its efforts to bring the three-time Cy Young winner back to the Rogers Center.
Scherzer, 41, spent the 2025 season with the Jays after signing a one-year, $15.5MM deal in free agency last winter. Repeated injuries to his thumb and a hamstring in his right arm limited him to 85 major league innings during the regular season, where he posted a career-worst 5.19 ERA. However, Scherzer still struck out an average of 22.9% of opponents against a clean 6.4% walk rate. His 10.7% swing rate was nearly three kicks off his career mark but closely aligned with the league average of 11%.
Much of the damage to Scherzer came from a rough start, in which he gave up seven runs in two of three innings in his best appearance of the season. He had a 4.48 ERA in his other 16 starts. Obviously, any pitcher looks better when you throw in his worst appearance of the season, and even that 4.48 mark isn’t great, but Scherzer was at least serviceable for most of the season and looked better in the playoffs, when he made three starts and posted a 3.77 ERA in 14 1/3 innings.
The Jays already have enough depth in the rotation. Kevin Gausman, Dylan Cease, Trey Yesavage, Jose Berrios and KBO reimbursement Cody Ponce will open the season in rotation, allowing life. That’s right Shane Bieber returned to a one-year deal after waiving free agency in favor of his $16MM player pick, but will open the season on the injured list due to some arm fatigue. The team plans that as a precaution after Bieber pitched 88 innings and worked deep into the postseason in his return from Tommy John surgery, but it’s still a significant improvement — and the fact that one of the team’s top options, Bowden Francishe will miss a year due to Tommy John surgery.
With Toronto’s rotation depth having taken those two hits in the past 10 days, it’s understandable if they’ve stepped up their efforts to bring in more depth. The exact plan remains to be seen, assuming the deal comes together, that is. Nicholson-Smith suggests the Jays could release Scherzer with a slow build, aiming for the season opener in late April or early May.
The price point will be important in any contract for Scherzer, especially if the idea is for him to gradually progress early in the season. The Jays are at the top of the penalty kill and are over the limit for the third straight season. They will pay a 110% tax on any money paid to Scherzer, which is a significant consideration for a team that is already on track to establish a new franchise record payroll of over $30MM.
Still, there’s good reason to consider deepening despite the tax bill’s impact. With Francis out for the season and Bieber starting the IL, the sixth starter is on Eric Lauerwho enjoyed a renaissance year with the Jays in 2025. He will open in the swing role, barring another injury to the top five arms, but depth options after that are dim.
The former’s high hopes Ricky Tiedemann he should be healthy but hasn’t slept since Tommy John surgery in 2024 — a season in which he totaled just 17 1/3 innings. Hope Adam Macko he struggled offensively and kept his ERA under 5.00 in Triple-A last year. That’s right Lazaro Estrada he made his big league debut last year but was hit hard in 7 1/3 frames and posted a 5.73 ERA in the minors. Rights Angel Bastardo again Spencer Miles they are also on the 40 man roster but are subject to Rule 5 restrictions. Bastardo was drafted in 2024 but missed the 2025 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. He cannot be optioned to Triple-A before spending 90 days in the active program. It’s going to be hard for Jay too. Options not listed in the camp include Yariel Rodriguezthe Jays going through waivers in December, and the walk-ons Connor Seabold again Michael Plassmeyer.
It’s not a deep or attractive set of depth options, and if Bieber ends up missing more time than expected and/or the Jays suffer another injury to the big league pitching staff, depth will be tested quickly. In that sense, whether it’s a one-year reunion with Scherzer or a random deal for a veteran like him. Anthony DeSclafanibringing in more depth would be smart for the Jays.
