The Blue Jays remain interested in the free agent starter Framber ValdezJon Heyman and Joel Sherman of the New York Post report. Toronto reportedly met with Valdez at the GM Meetings back in early November. That preceded their seven-year, $210MM contract Dylan Ceaseso it was never a given that the Jays were still involved.
Valdez is arguably the last impact player available on the open market. He is definitely a top player. There is a decent supply of unsigned first throws, but most of the other players fit in the middle or after the turn. That includes Zac Gallenthe only free agent to decline a qualifying offer. Valdez is at least a top #2 starter and has ace potential.
The southpaw finished in the top 10 in Cy Young voting each season from 2022-24. He looked at that pace at the All-Star Break last year, posting a 2.75 earned run average over 19 starts. Things picked up in the second half, as Valdez posted a 5.20 ERA in his last 12 starts. He also had a highly publicized altercation with a third hunter César Salazaras he came under fire for not showing concern immediately after hitting Salazar in the chest with a fastball. Astros officials have maintained that they do not believe Valdez intentionally ran over the catcher, and Salazar has gone out of his way to play down the situation publicly.
In any case, Valdez hit the market coming off arguably his worst two-month period in years. He’s entering his age-32 season, an age when five-year deals with rookie free agents are rare. Blake Snell again Jacob deGrom they were the only pitchers 32 or older to sign five years during the last decade. It’s unclear what Valdez wanted at the start of the offseason, but it’s usually not a good sign in the player market if they aren’t signed by February. A short-term deal to come out probably isn’t as attractive to Valdez as it would be to a young free agent.
The Jays already had six runs in the rotation with Cease, Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber, Cody Ponce again José Berríos. They’re heavily involved in every top free agent, so they may be circling back to see Valdez’s market drop to the point where they feel the value is too good to pass up. Bieber has struggled with elbow fatigue. Yesavage had injury questions in college and just finished his first full professional season. Ponce is something of an unknown coming back from Korea, though the Jays wouldn’t have guaranteed him $30MM if they didn’t think he could be a viable starter.
Toronto can certainly field this team this season, but it’s clear they’re still kicking around for rotation opportunities. Heyman said on MLB Network’s appearance this afternoon that the Jays are interested in bringing him over Max Scherzer back. That would obviously be a much cheaper move than Valdez’s short-term deal, but Scherzer isn’t so clear on the development of Toronto’s backfield.
RosterResource calculates the Jays’ luxury tax salary at around $310MM. That’s already a franchise record and puts them in the top penalty category. The Jays are close behind the Yankees and Phillies to make the clear top five in projected spending behind the Dodgers and Mets. Signing Valdez would likely put them close to $340MM in CBT obligations, which would put them ahead of the Yankees and Philadelphia. They will pay a 90% tax on the average annual value of any other free agent contracts. Valdez’s hypothetical $30MM salary would add another $27MM to their tax bill and bring the total investment to $57MM.
Valdez is subject to draft compensation, although that penalty is less severe for the Jays because they had already signed Cease. Toronto picked up their second round pick and their compensatory pick Bo Bichette (after the fourth round) to add Cease. They will give their third and fifth round picks to Valdez, but those are outside the top 100 overall.
Houston paid the luxury tax last year, so they will only get a compensatory pick after the fourth round if Valdez signs elsewhere. That’s only inevitable, as they’ve never seemed interested in meeting the southpaw’s asking price on a free agent deal. The collective bargaining agreement prevents team personnel from publicly saying they are not pursuing specific players, but Houston GM Dana Brown insisted this afternoon that the Astros “have not had any discussions recently” with the player’s camp (video via Jason Bristol of KHOU 11 News).
