A Padres club already thin on rotation depth delivered some bad news to fans on Monday, as did the manager Craig Stammen he revealed that’s right Joe Musgrove is expected to open the season on the injured list (video link via 97.3 The Fan). Musgrove has yet to miss more than a week. Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that he did not recover as well as he had hoped following the start of the exhibition against Great Britain in the World Baseball Classic.
It’s a shocking update, though it’s worth noting that Stammen didn’t suggest a reversal of any note. Musgrove has not ridden since the 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery that sidelined him for the entire 2025 campaign.
“He might start in the IL this year,” Stammen said Monday morning. “We’re getting to the point where he’s taken enough time off that it’s going to be hard to get him up to a player who can throw five innings, 90 pitches. … This was part of the plan. We knew he was going to have to take time off. We knew we were going to prepare him for the whole season and not just Opening Day.”
Getting a healthy Musgrove back in the bullpen will be key to the Padres’ chances this season. San Diego’s rotation depth has decreased over the past year. Yu Darvish injured and considering retirement. Dylan Cease he became a free agent. Rights Stephen Kolek again Ryan Bergert they were traded to the Royals last summer. Hopes Braden Nett again Henry Baez were sent to Athletics as part of the Mason Miller trade.
A healthy Musgrove is arguably the Padres’ best pitcher. From 2021-24, the now 33-year-old righty has given his hometown club 559 1/3 innings of 3.20 ERA ball, striking out 25.5% against a 6.1% walk rate. Musgrove doesn’t throw particularly hard, sitting a little north of 93 mph with his heater, but he has good command and pulls both plate chases and swing strikes at league average or slightly better rates.
It’s always fair to wonder how many innings the Padres can expect from Musgrove after being sidelined for nearly 18 months. The uncertainty surrounding his career is one of many pressing questions about San Diego’s starting staff.
The Padres are now entering the year Michael King (also coming off an injury-shortened season) and Nick Pivetta closed spots. Randy Vásquez and free agent pickups German Marquez both are likely to be in the starting five again, although Márquez was lost in the spring due to his troublesome return from UCL surgery in Colorado. In 6 2/3 innings, he allowed nine runs on 10 hits and four walks. Vásquez posted a solid 3.84 ERA in 133 2/3 innings last season but did so with the third-worst strikeout rate (13.7%) of any pitcher in MLB (min. 100 innings pitched). Metrics like SIERA (5.43) and xFIP (5.51) are both down-twos in that same subset.
Options to fill out the rotation behind King, Pivetta, Vásquez and Márquez are suspect. Left hand JP Sears he’s on the 40-man roster but it hasn’t appeared that he doesn’t trust the organization since he landed alongside Miller in the aforementioned trade. The Friars only gave him five games last year despite being a key player for the Athletics. He spent all of his time with the organization in Triple-A last summer, and Sears had a terrible spring (8.44 ERA in 10 2/3 innings). That’s right Matt Waldron He is on the 40-man roster but is behind in camp and could start in IL himself. San Diego also signed on Griffin Canning in free agency, but is a lock to open for IL as he finishes rehabbing a torn Achilles tendon last year.
Most likely, the Padres will need to break camp with at least one non-roster prospect in exchange (barring other additions). Walker Buehler, Marco Gonzales again Triston McKenzie the most prominent names signed to minor league deals this offseason. None of the three hit well this spring. Buehler was the only pitcher to allow fewer runs than innings pitched (four runs on seven hits and two walks and six strikeouts in 6 2/3 frames).
Given the lack of options and the nature of their early schedule, the Padres may not fill Musgrove’s rotation at all. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that the Padres could open the season with a four-man rotation. Acee calls King, Pivetta and Vásquez locks, adding that Buehler “might” get a spot, while Márquez’s spring problems have at least raised doubts about his ability to handle the job.
San Diego has several days off during the first eight days of the season. That would allow them to leapfrog fifth place with two changes in their first ten games. The Padres’ bullpen is among the deepest and most talented in the sport, so even when they need a fifth starter, they can opt for a bullpen game while waiting for Musgrove to get into game condition. Someone like Márquez or Sears could open up a bullpen game and maybe roam the opposing lineup once before turning to the bullpen.
There is no clear answer yet, which will make the final week of camp worth watching carefully. Each of Márquez, Sears, Buehler and Gonzales should have another appearance or two to try to claim the job, and ever-busy president of baseball ops AJ Preller can always try to bring in another arm creatively. One of the remaining free agents (eg Lucas Giolito, Tyler Anderson, Patrick Corbin) likely won’t have an offseason, but there will be plenty of names either waived or granted waivers in minor league deals in the final few days of camp.
