How do bumpy greens affect PGA Tour pros? Here’s what the data says

It’s a common talking point of West Coast Swing: as the day gets later, the greens get stronger.

That’s because of Poa annua grass, which has a reputation for being large and elusive later in the day due to rapid afternoon grass growth and seed head production. With the Poa greens in play at Torrey Pines this week — and two other Tour stops to come, Pebble Beach and Riviera — we examine the data to determine whether putting on the PGA Tour really gets harder as the day goes on.

Figures behind the bumpy green

We looked at more than 9,000 official rounds tracked by the Tour’s ShotLink technology at those three courses over the past 10 seasons. Across the board, putt values ​​range from varying distances to players with more recent tee times. Take from five to 10 feet: for players who run before 9 a.m. local time, the average performance over the past decade 52.3%. From 9 am to 11 am, that number drops just a touch, so 52.2%. From noon to 2 p.m., it enters 50%.

Because competitive players with later weekend times naturally make more putts than their competition, let’s break that data down into just Rounds 1 and 2. For putts from 4-8 feet, players who play before 9 a.m. are local. 64.9% of their putts. In the 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. group, that number drops 61.5%.

The decrease of 3.4% It may sound trivial, but the lines between success and failure are razor thin in professional golf. That difference represents a gap in make rate from 4 to 8 feet on the Tour’s eighth-toughest course by that metric in 2025 (Sedgefield Country Club) and 25th-toughest (Country Club of Jackson).

Which of these areas is most affected by the progression of the day? When you split the sessions into two blocks, the early risers in Riv have a very different advantage. In the last ten years, players who play before 10 o’clock in the morning play 3.4% more putts from 4 to 8 meters than their counterparts that come out after that time. The differences for Torrey Pines South (-0.3%) and Pebble Beach (-2.3%) are smaller.

Players who finished in the top 10 in those three tournaments over the past 10 years — the Farmers Insurance Open, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the Genesis Invitational — qualified. 70.4% of their putts from 4 to 8 feet that week. Players who finished outside the top 10 did just that 63.3%. One putt – or a bump on the green – can make that difference.

What about the strokes earned? Does golf’s most comprehensive metric coverage show a trend, and, if so, how big would the difference be?

And, from an analytical point of view, Riviera is the most affected of the three studies. The difference in strokes gained per round is a little more than one-tenth of a stroke compared to ten years ago for players who played before and after 10 am local time. For the Riv, that number is nearly double — an average difference of two-tenths of a stroke per round played.

Which players in recent years have excelled in these areas? A number of elite putters have taken advantage of the struggles of their peers.

MAX HOMA

Perhaps it’s to be expected with his West Coast roots, but Max Homa has been one of the most consistent players in these Poa areas throughout his career. His +0.77 strokes gained per round in the Riviera-Pebble-Torrey triumvirate is the best among players with 20 or more rounds since 2020. In his two wins over that span — the 2021 Genesis Invitational and the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open — Homa averaged 1.31 rounds per putt.

The numbers are even more impressive when you stretch the data back a full decade. Homa averaged just 0.36 three-putts per round, fourth fewest among professional players since 2016. His 28.3 percent shooting percentage from 10 to 20 feet is also eighth over that span.

Homa has hit 73.3% of his shots from 4 to 8 feet on these courses over the past six years, the 5th highest success rate among professional players. In 2025, Homa was actually better from that point in these traditional tough shots (71.1%) than over the course of the season (62.8%).

COLLIN MORIKAWA

When Collin Morikawa won his second title at the 2021 Open, he became the first player to do so in eight or so years since Bobby Jones. Accolades seem like every square inch of Morikawa’s resume, but if there’s one part of his game that warrants criticism so far, it’s his putting. Over the past six seasons on the PGA Tour, he has ranked outside the top 110 in strokes gained five times.

That changes dramatically, however, when Morikawa has his feet on familiar West Coast soil. As of 2020, he is averaging 1.97 feet of 10 feet or more per round on three-pointers, the second-highest rate of any player. He also ranks among the leaders in putting from 10 to 20 feet (4th) and average feet of putts made per round (7th). It helped him to top-three finishes at Riviera (2022) and Torrey Pines (2023).

VERICK McNEALY

Fittingly, the former Stanford star is joining the Cal Bears. Maverick McNealy ranks second since 2020 in average yards of putts made per round at these three courses (78’2″). He is ranked 5th in putts per round (+0.70) and 12th in putt make rate from 10 to 20 feet (29.1%) at these venues since the season-ending PGNea of ’20’ of the best three PGNea. Tour came to California.

WYNDHAM CLARK

In the third round of his Pebble Beach victory two years ago, it seemed like Wyndham Clark was doing everything he could watch. On a bitter Saturday, Clark rolled 189 feet, 9 inches of putts en route to a 60, his lowest score so far on Tour. He nailed four putts of at least 24 feet on the front nine alone that day.

For Clark’s career, however, it’s not just the long runs that have come down to him in California. His 61.3% win rate from 5 to 10 feet over the three West Coast courses is the fourth best of any player since 2020. Clark averaged 2.26 strokes over his two average rounds at American Express last week en route to a T13 finish.