The previously unpopular Dodgers are close Evan Phillips in November, as the right-hander recovered from Tommy John surgery and entered his final season in charge of the club. Phillips’ projected $6.1MM salary would have cost the Dodgers more than double because of taxes, and since he had surgery in early June, there’s no guarantee he’ll be back on the mound this season at all.
On the surface, Phillips makes for an interesting free agent target for clubs looking for bullpen help in both 2026 and 2027. It has become increasingly common for pitchers recovering from UCL surgery to sign two-year deals, with the first year ticketed for rehab and the second intended to be a full season on the mound. Phillips, however, is opting to sign a one-year deal and be back on the market next season, reports Tim Healey of the Boston Globe. Phillips doesn’t plan to sign until at least January, when he’s cleared to resume throwing, and may delay signing until July, when he’s game-ready.
The Red Sox are among the teams that have expressed interest in Phillips, according to Healey, although they are just one of many. Phillips’ one-year goal and pre-injury record make him a good fit for almost any team. He won’t cost much to most clubs, and the 31-year-old righty has been good in four-plus seasons with Los Angeles.
Originally coming to the Dodgers by way of a waiver claim from the Rays, Phillips pitched well in the final few weeks of the 2021 season. However, it was the 2022 season when the right-hander really broke out. In 63 innings that season, he turned in a 1.14 ERA with a 33% strikeout rate and a 6.4% walk rate.
Since that 2022 breakout, Phillips has pitched 184 2/3 innings with a 2.14 earned run average, 29.6% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate, 43.3% ground ball rate, 45 saves and 36 shutouts. He allowed just 0.68 homers average in nine innings pitched while sitting better than 96 mph with his four-seamer, just under 95.8 mph with his sinker, 93.1 mph with his cutter and 85.1 mph with his slider.
There are advantages to both waiting until late in the off-season and waiting until mid-season to sign. If Phillips waits until January or later, he will be able to clearly show the progress he has made in his reconstruction surgery. Scouts won’t see him 100% short, of course, but it will show that he’s well into the rehab process and give them some solid data to compare to other pitchers while they’re at the same time in their rehab process. That would improve his earning power. Waiting until spring training could create a new couple and/or new urgency among interested parties, too, as it’s inevitable that a number of players will go down with injuries this spring (as they do every spring).
Waiting until midseason will mean spending the first few months of the year adjusting on his own instead of with a team, but Phillips can see more accurately which clubs are postseason contenders. It can also exclude any qualifying offer – no matter how small. (If Phillips hadn’t gotten injured and continued on his previous path, he would have been a QO; obviously, doing that more than 20-30 innings after surgery would make the chances of getting one very slim.) That wouldn’t be an option if he signed a one-year deal in late June or early July, since players need to spend the entire season to get a full QO roster on a major league roster.
It’s rare for a reliever to get a QO but it does happen. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, in the last five years, three suppliers have received and rejected QOs. That’s right Raisel Iglesias, Josh Hader again Edwin Díazall of whom were very close when those agreements were signed.
Phillips was close to that level not too long ago, but he would have to rule in late 2026 for QO to be a consideration after a long layoff. However, in his opinion, he may choose to wait to sign until the start of the season. Since he’ll miss the first half of the season anyway, he could close out QO’s chance, even if it’s already slim. QO has a negative impact on a free agent’s earning potential, so it’s always best to avoid it, if possible.
The mid-season signing will also give him more time to get fully healthy. As the season progresses, it will also create a clearer picture of which teams need him the most due to injuries, competition, and more.
last winter, David Robertson was a free agent but reportedly wanted a contract with an average annual value of $10MM. When he didn’t get what he wanted, he decided not to sign until the Phillies inked him in July, one week before the trade deadline. That was a prorated $16MM deal. Robertson only got about $6MM of that but that brought him closer to his asking price for a few months of work and he was able to pick the club clearly out of contention after the All-Star break.
That situation was not exactly the same as Robertson was healthy while Phillips was not. However, it may play out the same way. If Phillips doesn’t get the offers he likes in the coming months, he can continue to build strength. Potentially, interest from clubs could increase in kind. On the other hand, this all depends on Phillips avoiding a setback. If he receives a suitable offer in the coming months, he will have to weigh the pros and cons of turning it down in order to try more in the summer.
Photo courtesy of Jerome Miron, Imagn Images
