Later tonight, the 2026 World Baseball Classic will come to a close. It was as entertaining as expected, with good performances from some of the top teams mixed in with some surprising upsets (such as Team Italy’s 4-0 record in the playoffs and Samurai Japan’s loss at the hands of Team Venezuela in the quarterfinals). All of that leads up to tonight’s game, where Team USA will take on Team Venezuela. Which national team will emerge victorious?
Many have picked Team USA as the favorite in this year’s WBC iteration since before the tournament even started. The team boasted a star-studded roster for the tournament, with Paul Skenes again Tarik Skubal before the rotation, Mason Miller behind the bullpen, and a roster full of the game’s best hitters like this one Aaron is the judge, Raleighagain Bobby Witt Jr. (among many others).
Venezuela’s roster is impressive in its own right, with a combined 25 All-Stars among its starting lineup (14 of which Ronald Acuña Jr. again Salvador Perez). However, their inclusion is not that impressive on paper. Guard Suárez again Eduardo Rodriguez they’re strong arms who have received huge multi-year deals in the majors, but they’re not the type of perennial Cy Young favorites Skubal and Skenes. Installed bullpen Daniel Palencia, Angel Zerpaagain Jose Butto it’s certainly solid, but none of those arms can hold a candle to the elite production Miller provides.
That difference in swing may be a big part of why 52% of MLBTR readers predicted Team USA would win this year’s WBC in a poll conducted early in the tournament, while only 2% predicted Team Venezuela would win. Since then, Venezuela has shown its strength by taking out not only Samurai Japan, but also the only national team that has been able to beat Team America so far in the tournament: Italy.
Venezuela’s support arms at the back were off, and the players loved it Luis Arraez again Michael Garcia they were able to enter the competition in a big way. Of course, Team USA brought in the fire fighters. That Judge and his .979 OPS in the contest actually sits below four other hitters on the list (Gunnar Henderson, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Roman Anthonyagain Kyle Schwarber) says it all in terms of the attack power of the United States.
If the USA national team clicks offensively, and there is a big difference between the two sticks, it may seem that Venezuela remains the dogs going into the final game tonight. That may not be as cut-and-dry as it seems, though. That’s because Team USA’s shooting is nowhere near firing on all cylinders right now. Several of the team’s pitchers (including both Skubal and Skenes) returned to MLB camp and are unavailable for the final game of the tournament. That’s a paid manager Mark DeRosa tapping Nolan McLean starting tonight, but McLean was given up three runs in three innings of work while appearing against Italy. He’ll be facing a very successful lineup tonight, and it’s hard to know if the 24-year-old rookie will be able to meet the deadline.
If McLean falters, the bull backing him seems less likely. It’s not clear who DeRosa will be with in the final game, but there are rumors that one or both of them will be between Miller and someone at the top. David Bednar may not be available based on previous pitch calculations. Players love it Garrett Whitlock, Griffin Jaxagain Tyler Rogers they’re certainly more talented and can handle late-inning roles, but those back three look a lot closer to Venezuela’s best bullpen arms than someone like Miller. If Miller and Bednar are out, those stats will destroy most of Team USA’s good play.
How do MLBTR readers think tonight’s final game will shake out? Will Team USA take the title, as many thought they would throughout the tournament, or will Venezuela be able to overcome the odds and become this year’s WBC champions? Have your say in the poll below:
