The Mets have made a four-year commitment to the outfielder Kyle Tuckeraccording to a report from Mike Puma of the New York Post. Jim Duquette of MLBNetwork Radio first suggested the Mets were “maybe” extending their request to four years yesterday.
Tucker, who turns 29 this weekend, has had an unusually quiet market by the standards set by other top free agents like Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtaniagain Aaron is the judgeeach of whom signed in December. Things have gotten a lot more intense this past week, however, and all signs point to three teams emerging as possible destinations for the multi-time All-Star: the Mets, Blue Jays, and Dodgers. A previous report indicated that the Blue Jays had a long-term deal on Tucker’s table, while the Mets preferred a short-term deal at a mid-year premium. Concrete reporting on Tucker’s pursuit of the Dodgers has been sparse, but previous comments from the front office throughout the winter have suggested reluctance to add another long-term contract to their aging roster and block top outfield prospects. Zyhir Themba again Joshua De Paula long term.
Reports on the Mets’ offer to Tucker have varied throughout the week. Initial reports suggested the club had inked a three-year deal for Tucker in the $120MM to $140MM range, and a later report indicated the Mets offered a $50MM AAV with no specific number of years attached to that report. This latest four-year offer report also comes without any specific AAV attached to it. That opens up the possibility that New York has more offers on Tucker’s table, with varying annual salaries and contract structures that all fall under the general umbrella of short-term deals with relatively high annual salaries. Of course, it’s also possible that the Mets just upped their offer a few days ago.
If owner Steve Cohen and his front office offered Tucker $200MM or more over the next four seasons, that would be a tough package to turn down without an incredible long-term offer. Tucker will be eligible to re-enter free agency before his age-33 season, and while he may have to get another short-term contract starting in his mid-thirties it’s worth keeping that in mind. Kyle Schwarber he got a five-year, $150MM contract with the Phillies as the only DH slugger heading into his age-33 season earlier this winter. In that context, it’s not hard to imagine Tucker earning $350MM or more for the rest of his playing career if he were to finish a four-year contract with a $50MM AAV and sign another contract or two after that. It’s also possible (and probably likely) that the short-term arrangement comes with at least one opt-out option in the deal that would make it even easier for Tucker to return to free agency to seek a lucrative offer.
On the other hand, it’s not hard to argue that Tucker deserves the exact type of long-term offer that could exceed $200MM over four years in favor. An All-Star in four straight seasons, Tucker finished fifth in AL MVP voting back in 2023 and has since posted 9.2 bWAR and 8.7 fWAR in just 214 games with a .274/.388/.507 slash line (152 wRC+) to show for it. A rough second half with the Cubs last year and injuries that limited him to a small number of games the past two years seemed to cause some level of concern among interested clubs, but the effect of adding a perennial MVP candidate to the middle of the lineup in his first year is undeniable.
MLBTR’s own prediction for Tucker’s contract at the start of the season was an 11-year, $400MM deal. That type of contract would be a no-brainer to choose over a short-term deal, even with a $50MM AAV. How far the long-term offer can fall below that figure before Tucker begins to consider a short-term, higher AAV deal will certainly depend on Tucker’s tolerance for risk and desire for stability. It would be daring to get away with something even in the scope of a $330MM deal Bryce Harper came to Philadelphia during the 2018-19 season, but a good argument for that would be that Harper himself could have come out ahead financially if he had instead signed the reported short-term, $45MM AAV offer he received from the Dodgers that winter and returned to the market a few years ago.
Wherever Tucker ends up, and whatever type of contract he ends up taking, it’s increasingly likely that his free agency will come to an end in the coming days. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported earlier this morning that a decision from Tucker’s camp could come as soon as today, and given the frenzy of reporting over the past few days it appears that the parties involved are all in the process of providing high-level advice as Tucker nears a decision.
