6 to choose our favorite expert this week

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour betting tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a host and frequent guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network dedicated to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on Twitter at @LasVegasGolferand you can read his picks below for the 2026 Cognizant Classic, which begins Thursday in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla.

Say goodbye to the Pacific coast, desert golf, and Poa Annua and hello to palm trees, water hazards, and Bermudagrass. Yes, the West Coast Swing is over and we are entering Florida. The 2026 PGA Tour season begins its Florida Swing at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida for the Cognizant Classic, the first of four in a row in the Sunshine State.

Coming off of two straight Signature Events and one coming up next week at Bay Hill in Orlando, Cognizant is taking the reins as far as field strength. Being put on the show as a “tweener” makes for an unfortunate but obvious week for the top players in the game.

Not only has the event changed in name (it was known as the Honda Classic) but the difficulty of the golf course has changed significantly. George and Tom Fazio designed PGA National back in the early 1980s. Jack Nicklaus was called in to redo it in 1990 and has made three or four tweaks since then. For many years, we saw champions not reaching double digits in the bottom division. Chris Kirk has won a playoff in the last four seasons at 14 under. Austin Eckroat won in 2024 at 17 under par and Joe Highsmith is your defending champion, closing at 19 under last year.

One of the most challenging par 4s on the Tour, the 10th hole at PGA National, was extended by 20 yards two years ago and turned into a par 5. The quiet Bermudagrass is now considered winter Ryegrass and this makes for softer stays, more acceptable fairways, and less penalty difficulty. It’s interesting, but this has really changed things by seemingly a dozen or so. Jack Knapp opened last year’s event with a 59 shot. The current iteration is a par 71 that stretches to a little better than 7,200 yards and is now considered a Nicklaus-only design.

Another constant factor here in Palm Beach Gardens is the atmosphere. With water coming into play on 15 of the 18 holes, the wind can make things dark. Nicklaus’ closing holes, Nos. 15 – 17, known as the “Bear Trap.” Par 3s and par 4s, all with water shots. The forecast calls for winds in the 10-15 mph range. That’s remarkable – but if it starts at the top, we could see carnage.

To me, the golf course is all about accuracy, hitting the ball, and driving around the green. I looked at Strokes Gained: Approach, Off the Tee, and Ball Drive. I’m looking for Good Drives gained, Scrambling, and Hole Proximity from 125-200 yards. With water everywhere, 60 sand bunkers, and wind, hitting a good shot from 150 yards or more – PGA National becomes one of the most challenging places on the Tour to do such things.

As far as relative studies go, I believe a lot of it has to do with how one plays in Florida. Conditions are the same at each location on the swing, Bay Hill (Arnold Palmer Invitational), Innisbrook (Valspar), TPC Sawgrass (the Players), and PGA National. I feel like we’re seeing some success with Waialae in Honolulu and the recent Canadian Open venues, Hamilton, St. George’s, and TPC Toronto. Finally, there is a lot of crossover success here at Cognizant and that of the Open Championship. Former Open champions Padraig Harrington and Marc Calcavecchia each won the event twice. Ernie Els, Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott, Justin Leonard, Rickie Fowler, and Todd Hamilton have all won here in Florida and won or played best in the Open. Personally, I believe a lot of that comes down to hitting the ball and the ability to play in the air – both of which are useful when it comes to the Open Championship or the Florida Swing.

Daniel Berger (40-1)

The Florida State Seminole really started his career here at PGA National when he lost in the finals as a Tour rookie in 2015. He has finished here twice since then in 2020 and 2022. Berger has always been a good golfer, windsurfer, accurate driver, and Bermudagrass expert. In the last 24 rounds, he ranks eighth in the Hole Proximity category from 150-175 yards. He was sixth earlier this season in Hawaii at Waialae and eighth at the Open Championship at Royal St. George’s in 2021.

Aaron Rai (40-1)

Here is another very accurate, ball-loving player who knows his way around windy conditions. Rai finished 14th in Hamilton at the Canadian Open in 2024 and 13th in St. George’s in 2022. He was 19th at Royal St. George’s in 2021 at the Open. In this category, Rai is ranked 12th in SG: Approach, seventh in Bogey Avoidance, and No. 1 in Good Drives Achieved in the last 24 rounds.

Haotong Li (49-1)

We tried Li a few weeks ago in Phoenix and got there but I’ll go back to him here because of his recent form and his ability. He finished eighth and 11th on Tour this season and has two top-10 finishes on the DP World Tour to close in 2025. Li currently ranks eighth on the SG Tour: Tee to Green, 17th in Total Driving, and 19th for Scrambling. Li has finished in the top 4 twice at the Open Championship, including last summer at Royal Portrush.

Jordan Smith (60-1)

I’ve always felt that Smith has a lot of upside and I’m glad we’re now starting to see him regularly on the PGA Tour, where he’s currently ranked fifth in Total Driving, sixth in Greens in Regulation, and number 1 in Ball Striking. He finished 16th a few weeks ago in Phoenix and closed out 2025 on the DP World Tour with 15th-20th-and-21st finishes.

Mackenzie Hughes (62-1)

Enter the Canadian short game wizard coming off two straight top-35s in Phoenix and two weeks ago at Pebble Beach, where he ranked 17th in Greens in Regulation. In the last 24 rounds, Hughes is ranked second in the Scrambling category. In the Open Championship at Royal St. George’s in 2021, Hughes finished sixth. He finished second here at Cognizant in 2020 and finished seventh and 14th at the Canadian Open at Hamilton Golf & Country Club in 2024 and 2019.

Emiliano Grillo (85-1)

It really is a melting pot of options this week, so why not Argentina? However, Grillo is a golfer who seems to fit Florida golf. He was eighth here at Palm Beach Gardens in 2018, eighth and seventh at Bay Hill, and 11th at The Players. You missed three out of five cuts starting in the west, so moving to the southeast could be a much-needed change. In the last 24 rounds, Grillo ranks 14th in Bogey Avoidance, 13th in Hole Proximity from 125-150 yards, and seventh in Good Drives Achieved. In the Open Championship, he has twice finished 12th and was sixth in 2023.