Many teams have added to their rotation this offseason. Others chose to increase the ceiling by signing big-name free agents. In came the Blue Jays Dylan Ceasethe Red Sox signed Guard Suarezadded the Tigers Framber Valdezto name a few. Others try to maintain their bottom line by keeping existing starters and gaining depth. The Padres fit the latter mold, as they import Griffin Canning, German Marquezagain Walker Buehler with low-cost deals this week.
While starting pitchers haven’t changed as much as shortstops, injuries and poor performance still lead many to post difficult seasons in 2025. Tonight, we look at three back-to-back candidates: a top free agent, a veteran starter, and a minor league signing.
Top free agent: Zac Gallen
Gallen was a rotating front arm at his best. Since 2022-23, he has posted a 3.04 ERA in 394 innings for the Diamondbacks. He struck out 26.4% of batters in that span and ranked eighth among professional starters with a 20.4% K-BB average. His 9.3 fWAR ranked sixth ahead of the Giants ace Logan Webb. Entering his age-28 season in 2024, there was reason to believe Gallen would continue to play at his highest level.
His numbers that year were still solid, if you go down in the ace position. Gallen missed a month with a strained right hamstring but made 28 starts with a 3.65 ERA. He actually increased his ground ball rate from 41.8% in 2023 to 46.2% in 2024. That means his strikeout and walk rates are trending in the wrong direction, the latter now near average after two years of excellent control. Gallen moved on to 2025. Although he stayed healthy and totaled 192 innings in 33 starts, his ERA jumped to a career-high 4.83, his first below-average mark since 2021. The strikeout rate dropped to 21.5%, while his expected stats (4.28 xERA) suggested he was better than big.
Gallen entered the offseason as a low buyout candidate, according to former aces. We at MLBTR drafted him a four-year, $80MM contract even after his down year. In the end, his market did not develop as he had hoped. Gallen paid a one-year, $22.025MM reunion deal with Arizona that was just the same as the team’s qualifying offer amount in November.
Obviously, the club would like to see him return to his 2022-23 form. At the very least, Gallen figures to provide 30 starts of rotational production, or he’ll undoubtedly aim for more in hopes of a multi-year contract in the future. Gallen’s key will be refining his breakout pitches, which came out well in 2025 with Statcast’s run value metric. His curveball was worth 15 runs above average in 2024, but that has dropped to -4 this year, with opponents swinging over .200 more in the field. He will also look to increase his strikeouts and keep the ball in the yard, allowing the third most home runs (31) of any professional starter in 2025.
First Veteran: Sean Manaea
Manaea re-signed with the Mets on a three-year, $75MM deal through the 2024-25 season. At the time, he was coming off a solid 3.47 ERA in 181 2/3 innings in his return to full-time starting (he had been a target for the Giants in 2023). In New York in 2024, Manaea struck out batters at a 24.9% clip and did a good job of keeping the ball in the yard compared to his career numbers. His .249 BABIP suggested he benefited from luck, but still, he figured to provide solid, swing-average value in his new deal.
Unfortunately, his 2025 season was a stark contrast to his 2024 season. Manaea went down with a right oblique strain in March and missed the first three and a half months of the season. At one point, he suffered a setback when the team found some loose material in his pitching elbow. Finally starting on July 13, he made 15 appearances (12 starts) with a 5.64 ERA. Interestingly, he posted that high of an ERA despite striking out a career-best 28.5% of hitters and walking just 4.6%. Meanwhile, his expected stats (4.00 xERA and 3.30 xFIP) paint a much better picture than his career numbers.
On the other hand, Manaea struggled badly with the long ball in 2025, allowing 13 hits in just 60 2/3 innings (1.93 HR/9). He also dropped his sinker, which was worth 10 runs more than average in 2024, to throw his four-seamers more than 60% of the time. Opponents batted .129 more against the four-seamer than in 2024, when he used it the most. Manaea also increased his use of the sweeper but saw diminished results, including a 9.6% drop in strikeout rate and a .148 increase in slugging.
Maybe that was a mechanical problem. Manaea received a lower arm portion in 2024 and had a more productive second half. A combination of his nagging injury and trying to rehabilitate the equipment may have contributed to his poor 2025 numbers, according to the Mets manager. Carlos Mendoza (link via Alex Smith of SNY). His keys in 2026 will be regaining his pre-injury mechanics, splitting two fastballs like he did in 2024, and continuing to chase the sweeper.
Minor League Signing: Walker Buehler
The current version of Buehler is a far cry from the one that finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting in 2021. The 31-year-old has thrown 266 1/3 innings since the end of that campaign. He missed all of 2023 while recovering from August 2022 Tommy John surgery. He returned on the 16th of 2024, but the results were negative. Buehler struck out just 18.6% of batters against an 8.1% walk rate and allowed nearly two home runs in nine innings. His once-honored four-seamer was his most important pitch at 13 runs below average. Buehler played well in the postseason for the World Series-winning Dodgers, however. The Red Sox then took a chance on a one-year, $21.05MM contract.
Unfortunately, 2025 was not kind to him either. Buehler pitched 126 innings in 26 appearances (24 starts) with a 4.93 ERA. His velocity was low on every pitch except his slider. His strikeout rate dropped to just 16.3%, and his K-BB rate of 5.5% was the fifth-worst among starters with at least 100 innings pitched. Boston released him at the end of August. Although he did well in a small sample with the Phillies after that, it was clear that Buehler wasn’t going to do well on the market this time around.
Now competing for a trade spot in San Diego, Buehler will have to work hard to regain some value. He can start by adjusting his vocal mix. He has already slowed down his use of the four-seamer as he continues to slow down. Meanwhile, Buehler’s pitcher was well looked after by Statcast in 2025, coming in at 6 runs above average. Cutting his fastball could help him transition into a soft-contact, groundball pitcher. His slugging percentage and average exit velocity were in the 70th percentile or better in 2025, so building on that would be his best way to extend his career.
Photo courtesy of Benny Sieu, Imagn Images
