The Yankees and the outfielder/firesman Cody Bellinger they will reunite in a new deal, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. Boras Corporation client lands five-year contract worth $162.5MM, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Nothing has been postponed, according to The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty. Bellinger can opt out after the second and third seasons, according to Passan, who adds there is a $20MM signing bonus and a full no-trade clause. Bellinger earns $32.5MM per first season, per Nightengale. He’ll get $25.8MM in 2028 and 2029 and $25.9MM in 2030, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. The exit will be pushed back a year if the 2027 season is cleared of the lockout, per Nightengale. The Yanks currently have a 40-man cap space and won’t need to make a corresponding move unless they close that cap before the deal becomes official.
It always seemed like a good bet that Bellinger would return to the Yankees, as their first season together was a success. But there has been some friction lately, as the club and Bellinger’s camp have had a bit of a rift. It was reported earlier this month that the Yankees had an offer for Bellinger. No details about that offer were disclosed but it was reported after a few days that they made another offer.
Subsequent reporting on the negotiations suggested the Yanks had tabled a five-year offer worth more than $150MM, but Bellinger’s camp hoped to receive a seven-year extension. That gap seems to put things on the ice for a while, with different approaches available on both sides. The Yankees have shown interest in other players, including an outfielder Luis Robert Jr.while Bellinger can still match teams like the Dodgers and Mets.
But the market has changed a bit in the past week. The Dodgers and Mets entered a bidding war Kyle Tuckerwith the Dodgers coming out on top. The Mets then turned to signing Bo Bichette to bolster their infield, followed by a center fielder trade Luisangel Acuña to the White Sox as part of their Robert settlement package.
Those moves removed some options for the Yankees but also removed several landing spots for Bellinger. The Yanks don’t seem to be moving far from where their reported offer was a few weeks ago, though they did add an opt-out. A few days ago it was reported that they are determined to install them.
Although Bellinger and Boras didn’t quite get the seven-year deal they were looking for, the deal is very close to what was expected from the start of the offseason. For example, MLBTR predicted that Bellinger would get $140MM guaranteed over five years. Bellinger defended himself on the floor more than that. There is also a way to improve his income for the future and with more opportunities down the line.
Now 30, he turns 31 in July, so he will be 32 by the end of the 2027 season. Alex Bregman again Kyle Schwarber both received five-year deals this offseason, with Schwarber entering his age-33 season and Bregman at age 32. Schwarber received a guaranteed $150MM and Bregman $175MM, though Bregman’s deals had a backlog that pushed the current value much closer to Schwarber’s guaranteed.
For Bellinger, he could bank $85MM over the next two years, when factoring in the signing bonus and front-loaded salary. When his first opt-out comes, he will have three years and $77.5MM left on his deal. If he continues to be a productive player between now and then, he should be in good shape to break out.
Although Bellinger has retained some potential for future gains, he has regained solid footing after several years of uncertainty. When he first entered the open market, he had shown both great highs and great lows. In 2019, with the Dodgers, Bellinger was the National League MVP. He hit 47 home runs that year. Offenses have bled around the league for juicy balls but Bellinger has also pulled at a 14.4% clip and only caught 16.4% of the time. His .305/.406/.629 line led to a 161 wRC+, even in a stumbling offensive zone that season. He stole 15 bases and earned strong reviews for his defense. FanGraphs credits him with 7.8 wins above replacement.
But his production dipped slightly in 2020 and he seriously injured his shoulder in the NLCS during a homer celebration with a teammate. Enrique Hernándezas seen in this video from MLB.com.
Bellinger underwent surgery after the season and his performance deteriorated for two years afterward. He slashed .193/.256/.355 in 2021 and 2022, not being tendered by the Dodgers after the latter campaign. He worked with the Cubs in 2023, signing a one-year deal worth $17.5MM. He had a strong bounceback season at Wrigley, hitting 26 home runs and hitting .307/.356/.525 with a 135 wRC+.
Until 2024, Bellinger and his bosses at Boras Corporation hoped to get money. He had put the low points behind him. He was still young, entering his age-28 season, and had shown MVP upside. Last season, Trea Turner again Xander Bogaerts both received 11-year deals. This was seen as a way to reduce the competitive balance of those deals, as the player’s CBT hit is calculated based on the average annual value of the deal.
MLBTR expected that trend to continue with Bellinger, projecting him to a 12-year contract worth $264MM. That appeared to be at least in line with what Bellinger and Boras felt they could get, as they reportedly came out on top of $200MM.
It didn’t play out like that. Although Bellinger’s 2023 season was successful, there was some concern about the missing batted ball data. And with the damaged seasons still fresh in collective memory, his market did not improve as he had hoped.
It wasn’t just Bellinger, as many other players remained unsigned that season. They are called the “Boras Four”, as they were all brought back by the same agency. Bellinger, Blake Snell, Matt Chapman again Jordan Montgomery all resolved with short-term deals below expectations. Bellinger returned to the Cubs on a three-year contract with $80MM guaranteed, with options to opt out after each season.
The first season of that deal was not a huge success, as Bellinger was good but not great. He hit 18 home runs and slashed .266/.325/.426 with a wRC+ of 108. Bellinger decided to forgo the first out and stick with the Cubs. The team didn’t hold up their end of the bargain, however, as they sent Bellinger to the Yankees. It was a salary dump. Cubs found Cody Poteet they, who chose the assignment for him a few months later.
The Cubs spent $5MM in the trade, leaving the Yanks on the hook for $47.5MM over two years, though Bellinger still has one more option left. As mentioned before, the Yankees and Bellinger were a great matchup. He hit 29 home runs on the year and slashed .272/.334/.480 with a 125 wRC+. Yankee Stadium and its short left field deck seem to suit him, as he is hitting .302/.365/.544 at home on the year. He stole 13 bases and continued to get good marks with his glovework, earning a 4.9 fWAR.
Bellinger started his exit and took another crack at free agency, which led to this deal. As mentioned, it is possible that Bellinger will return to the open market again in the future. In the meantime, albeit in a roundabout way, he has increased his salary to more than the $200MM he sought in the last few years.
His three-year contract with the Cubs paid him $27.5MM over the first two years. He collected a $5MM buyout when he left last season, meaning he banked $60MM in the deal. Combined with this deal with the Yankees, he will earn $222.5MM even if he does not opt out of the deal.
More to come.
