The Red Sox will add a left-hander Guard Suárez in their already tight circulation. It is reportedly a five-year contract worth $130MM for Boras Corporation’s client. It appears to be straightforward, reportedly not containing any reversal, opt-out or non-trade protection. The Sox have a full 40 men and will need to make a corresponding move to make this big.
The Sox entered the offseason with a flurry of headlines Garrett Crochetfollowed by a significant gap in their other starters. They had plenty of options in the backfield and depth but were looking to strengthen the front.
“Because of the depth we’ve built over the last few years, we feel good about just starting, maybe No. 3-ish to No. 10-ish,” the baseball official said. Craig Breslow outline the situation in November. “And that shouldn’t be taken away from guys who can do more, and other than just saying I don’t think we’re going to spend a lot of time trying to add a No. 4, No. 5 starter.”
Since then, Breslow has made several moves to transform that rotation. He benefited Sonny Gray from the Cardinals and Johan Oviedo to the Pirates. Take them out a little bit from the depth by inserting Richard Fitts on the Gray deal too Hunter Dobbins of Wilson Contreras change.
Gray is arguably the type of #2 starter the club has been looking for. His 4.28 earned run average in 2025 has some Boston fans objecting to that test but he has a 3.63 ERA, 27% strikeout rate, 6.1% walk and 44.6% ground ball rate in 531 innings dating back to the start of 2023. FanGraphs ranked him in just the fifth season, after winning just the fifth spot Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler, Logan Webb again Christopher Sánchez.
Since Gray’s deal, Boston has seemed to focus more on improving its lineup and adding position players, focusing on midfielders such as. Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, Ketel Marte, Brendan Donovan again Isaac Paredes.
The club hit a wall there. Bregman signed with the Cubs. The Diamondbacks have reportedly taken Marte off the market. The Astros don’t appear to have much interest in moving Paredes. Bichette is still a free agent but it’s unclear if the Sox would be willing to do what it takes to sign him. Donovan is still up for grabs but the Sox haven’t met their asking price, at least not yet.
After Bregman’s deal with Chicago, Rob Bradford of WEEI and Sean McAdam and Chris Cotillo of MassLive suggested that Boston could shift their focus to starting pitching. Earlier today, Bradford suggested the club was getting aggressive in the trade market but the Sox went to free agency instead.
The contract is notable in several respects. First, Breslow has tended to avoid long-term free agent deals since becoming Boston’s top baseball executive. Coming into today, his longest free agent deal was a three-year deal for Bregman, which turned into a one-year deal when Bregman opted out. The Sox enter today as the only one of the 30 major league clubs not to sign a free agent this winter. The deal would be a new benchmark for Breslow in terms of age and guaranteed free agency, as well as erasing Boston’s status as the only team not to spend money in free agency this offseason.
It’s also a remarkable deal for Suárez in a few different ways. First, he was a low-profile international signing by the Phillies early in his professional career, receiving only a $25K bonus. Since he is the league champion, he has increased his salary due to the arbitration of his strong results but the lack of volume has reduced him. He just made $8.8MM in his last year of arbitration, modest by today’s standards, but now he’s about to get a bigger payday than ever.
Talking about his strong results but limited activity, which has influenced the outlook of his market coming this winter. Generally speaking, Suárez has been good for average but he doesn’t throw hard and has dealt with a nagging injury, which has had an effect on his overall strikeout rate.
He became the Phillies’ full-time starter in 2022 and held the rotation job for four years. During that time, he pitched 588 1/3 innings with a 3.59 ERA. His 21.9% strikeout rate was on par with the league average. His 7.5% walk rate was solid and his 50.8% ground ball rate was pretty good. He also earned a reputation as a cold-blooded playoff reliever, pitching the Phils 42 2/3 innings in the postseason with a 1.48 ERA.
But his speed has never been great and it’s going down. His four-seam fastball averaged over 93 miles per hour in 2022 and 2023. That dropped to 91.8 mph in 2024 and 91.3 mph last year. His primary pitch, his sinker, averaged 90.1 mph last year.
He still hasn’t pitched a full major league season. He hasn’t had any major injury problems but has had scattered problems over the years, with lower back problems a constant thorn. Because of those rare health issues, he never reached the 30-start mark or the 160-inning plateau in any season as a major leaguer.
Given his clear skills but also his question marks, MLBTR predicted that Suárez will be given five years, $ 115MM at the beginning of the offseason, $ 23MM according to the average annual price. The top of the free agent starting pitching market has been slow this winter. Dylan Cease and the Blue Jays found each other early but it was a bit more intense in another way. Prior to this, no starter other than Cease had signed a deal longer than three years or more than $75MM. Tatsuya Imai settled for three years and $54MM, well below expectations from the start of the season.
As Suárez and Framber Valdez remained unsigned in the new year, it was fair to wonder if they would live up to initial expectations. But with this deal, Suárez not only met MLBTR’s predictions but exceeded them. He matched the length with an additional $3MM in average annual value, up to $26MM AAV.
Despite some concerns about Suárez, this move gives Boston one of the best rotations in baseball, if not the best. Crochet is a clear ace. Suárez and Gray will be two spots behind him, followed Brian Bello. Oviedo looks to be in good shape for the #5 spot but will also have some competition from the boys Patrick Sandoval again Cutter Crawford. It is possible Tanner Houck jumps into the mix later in the year, having undergone Tommy John surgery in August.
Hopes Connelly Early again Payton Tolle he made his major league debut in late 2025 and could push for jobs. Kyle Harrison, David Sandlin, Shane Drohan again Tyler Uberstine they are on the 40 man roster. Those last six names have options and may have limited or no big league experience, so they all get sent to the minors as depth. Crawford has good big league experience but still has options, so it’s possible he’ll be stuck in Worcester as well.
But it also seems fair to wonder if this Suárez deal positions the Red Sox to trade a first pitch for an infield upgrade they didn’t get when Bregman slipped through their fingers. They have been linked to Donovan multiple times and have already lined up a few trades with Chaim Bloom, the former Boston baseball executive who is now president of baseball operations with the Cardinals.
Donovan isn’t the only option there. The Sox have also been linked to Marte a lot this winter. The Diamondbacks are said to have taken him off the market but maybe there is a situation where Breslow puts some big names on the table and makes them consider it. Nico Hoerner‘s name also came up in other trade rumors after the Cubs signed Bregman. If the Phillies do sign Bichette, he is expected to be traded Alec Bohm or Bryson Stott to make room. Jake Cronenworth of the Padres has had a few rumors.
All of those players will have a different level of trade value due to their different salaries and years of control, but the same is true of Boston’s pitchers. Early and Tolle are big prospects and can only be traded for a big return. Sandoval has one year left on his contract and has been injured for nearly two years, so his trade value is very low. Bello has been rumored and will be in the middle, as he is owed $50.5MM over the next four years and has been much better.
With at least one major move still looming, the club’s financial picture remains in flux. Currently, RosterResource pegs the club’s payroll at $216MM with a competitive tax balance sheet of $266MM. That’s assuming Suárez’s deal is split equally at $26MM per year, as the actual breakdown has not been publicly reported. If it is front-loaded or back-loaded, that can change the actual payout. However, CBT is calculated based on a player’s AAV, so that won’t change.
The Sox avoided the tax in 2023 and 2024. They are slightly over the line in 2025, paying only $1.5MM in taxes. That would make them second rate payers in 2026, giving them a basic tax rate of 30% for exceeding the initial threshold of $244MM. The second cap is $264MM and the Sox will pay 42% of spending over that line. If they exceed $284MM, the tax rate will jump to 75% for spending over that line and their top pick in the 2027 draft will be reduced by ten spots.
Speaking of the draft, the Sox will be affected by this Suárez signing in 2026. Suárez declined a qualifying offer from the Phillies, meaning the Sox are subject to the associated penalties to sign him. Since the Sox paid the tax last year, they have to give up their second- and fifth-highest draft picks this summer, in addition to losing $1MM in international bonus space. The Phillies will receive a compensatory pick after the fourth round of the upcoming draft.
Before this deal with the Red Sox, Suárez was linked to the Orioles, Astros and Mets, although other clubs were interested even if they were not linked to him in public reports. For the teams Suárez missed out on, there are still other options he can turn to, outside of the late stages of the new season.
Valdez once Zac Gallen They are two top agents, four Chris Bassitt, Justin Verlander, Lucas Giolito while others have not yet signed. The trade market still has other potential options, including MacKenzie Gore again Freddy Peralta. Valdez should be happy that Suárez is getting a bigger than expected deal in this part of the calendar as well. They are the same pitchers as groundballers. Valdez is a little older but has an impressive overall record.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post. first reported that the Sox would sign Suárez. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported the length and sureness, as well as the lack of recoil and bounce. Chris Cotillo of MassLive first reported the absence of a no-trade clause. Photos courtesy of Bill Streicher, Brad Penner, Imagn Images
