Much has been made of the Yankees’ seemingly off-season strategy of “getting it back.” While it last Trent Grisham and especially Cody Bellinger counted as a success, some fans were hoping for a tangible improvement. Aaron is the judge he’ll be 34 in April, and there are only so many years left in his prime (at least as a perennial MVP candidate). The Blue Jays, Orioles, and Red Sox have all upgraded their rosters, meaning the Yankees will have their job in 2026.
One area with a list of possible results is rotation. The team did very well in 2025, ranking eighth in the league with a combined 13.5 fWAR. Fried Max again Carlos Rodón were the main reasons for that success. Fried hit 195 1/3 career innings, displaying his signature control and groundball propensity en route to a fourth-place finish in AL Cy Young voting. Rodón matched Fried’s innings total in his best season as a Yankee, posting a 3.09 ERA with an above-average 25.7% strikeout rate and slugging home runs. Rookie Is Warren made 33 starts and showed promise, as did Cam Schlittler at the second half callup.
The ceiling is clearly high, especially if Warren and Schlittler do well in their second campaigns. However, there are low risks associated with injury, dysfunction, and depth. Starting with injuries, Gerrit Cole will return at some point after missing last year due to Tommy John surgery. Before that, he sat out only part of the season in 2024 due to elbow inflammation. He is now 35 years old and his last full-season job comes in 2023, when he wins the AL Cy Young award.
The manager Aaron Boone he said last week that Cole “had a good rehab” and was “not distracted” (link via Manny Randhawa of MLB.com). It’s not a story even thought he will do well when he comes back. The question is whether he will maintain his ace-level, pre-injury game as he is in his mid-30s and coming off an injury. There’s also the issue of volume, as even a June return from Cole will leave several months of innings for the other starters to cover.
Rodón is in the same position after having surgery in October to remove loose ligaments from his elbow. He is more likely to avoid starting 2026 on the 60-day injured list than Cole, with Rodón aiming to return in late April or early May. He’s two years younger than Cole, so he’s in no danger of a sudden decline. The question with Rodón is whether he can repeat his 2025 performance. A look at his Statcast page gives reason for optimism, with his fastball, breaking, and offspeed numbers all reaching 91 percent or better. That said, he was a middle-of-the-rotation starter in 2024, when he posted a 3.95 ERA and allowed 1.59 home runs per nine innings. Both he and Cole are under contract until 2028.
As for the small arms, much of the rotation’s success hinges on improvements from Warren and Schlittler maintaining his performance over a large sample. For Warren, that comes down to improving his secondary offerings. While his fastball came out of the 95th percentile in run rate, his breaking and fastball pitches were points of struggle. His slider was his primary pitch, but Statcast rated it as 10.6 runs below average. His curveball and changeup were both 4.6 runs below average. His 24.1% strikeout rate was impressive, but he’ll need to sharpen his secondary offerings and cut down on hard contact if he wants to become a true starter in the rotation.
Schlittler was a revelation in 14 starts last year. He had a 2.96 ERA and a 27.3% strikeout rate in 73 innings during the regular season and turned in the all-time rookie performance in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series against the Red Sox. His ceiling is arguably higher than Warren’s, though there are similar questions about his secondary contributions and control. Statcast took a negative view of his curveball and slider, which he only used a combined 17.3% of the time. Meanwhile, his 10.2% walk rate could use some improvement. None of this diminishes the value of his plus fastball, of course. However, he will need to make some adjustments to build on last year’s performance.
Apart from those weapons, the club has Luis Gil and newly discovered Ryan Weathers in hand. Gil won the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2024 but pitched just 57 innings in 11 starts last year because of a right lat strain. His 3.32 ERA was pretty on the surface, but his sideline numbers — 4.94 xERA and 4.63 FIP — painted him nearly a run and a half high. His control struggles are well known at this point, and he has a 10.0% strikeout rate in 2025.
Weathers has an 86% fastball rate, but has thrown just 281 big league innings since his 2021 start. Last year, he was limited to eight starts and 38 1/3 innings because of left flexor and lat strains. The Yankees gave up four chances to acquire him, so they will give him a chance to use his fastball while betting on a better life. Besides, the team has done that Ryan Yarbrough again Paul Blackburn such as depth options. Yarbrough did well enough last year, but neither option inspires much confidence if they need to cover important innings. Currently, Clark Schmidt he had UCL surgery in July, so he won’t be eligible until the second half, if at all.
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Photo courtesy of Rafael Suanes, Imagn Images
