After spending more than a year in the rumor mill, Nolan Arenadotime of St. Louis we are done. The Cardinals announced Tuesday that they traded Arenado and cash to the D-backs for a young right-hander. Jack Martinez (Arizona’s eighth-round pick in the 2025 draft). The Diamondbacks are reportedly on the hook for $11MM of the remaining $42MM owed Arenado over the next two seasons. The Rockies paid $5MM of that amount, and the Cardinals are owed the remaining $26MM. Arizona’s 40-man roster has vacancies but is now in place with the addition of Arenado.
As the Cardinals embark on a rebuild under new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom, trading the 34-year-old Arenado (35 in April) has been a primary goal this offseason. He is still owed two years and $42MM, though the Rockies are still stuck with $5MM of that amount. Arizona is contributing $5MM this season and $6MM next year.
Three years ago, Arenado’s salary dump would have been hard to imagine. He was a National League MVP finalist after hitting .293/.358/.533 with 30 home runs and his usual elite form of defense during that 2022 season. His offense dropped significantly in 2023 (.266/.315/.459) but was north of league average. It dropped to about average in 2024, however, and dropped significantly below this past season.
In 436 plate appearances with the Cardinals in 2025, Arenado turned in an anemic .237/.289/.377 batting line. By wRC+ rating, he was 16% worse than batting average at the plate. Arenado’s 12 home runs were his fewest in a full season since his first year back in 2013. This year’s walk rate of 6.4% was the lowest since 2015. Given that his 34.1% strikeout rate on pitches away from the plate was also his worst since 2015, that’s not surprising. Arenado’s 11.2% strikeout rate was one of the lowest in MLB and one of the best of his career, but he also posted his highest fly rate ever — 16.5% of his fly balls were harmless — and recorded the worst exit velocity and hit-out numbers of his career.
Suffice it to say, Arenado’s descent at the plate has been steep. He’s still got the communication skills but he’ll need to reduce his rush rate and cut out some of those weak pop-ups if he’s going to make meaningful progress. Luckily for Arenado, he’s going to a better place to attack than the one he’s called home in St. Louis. While Phoenix’s Chase Field isn’t a hitter’s place, it plays more neutral right-handed power now — Arenado’s biggest advantage relative to St. Louis. Louis’ Busch Stadium, which is the fifth-worst park for right-handed home runs over the past three years, according to Statcast’s Park Factors.
Prior to adding Arenado, the Diamondbacks were holding onto the market Alex Bregman. The game there always seemed like a tough one, given Arizona’s intention to cut salaries in 2026, but the interest was legitimate. The Snakes changed quickly and brought in a more affordable option to catch the hot spot for the next two seasons. Arenado’s glove has also taken some steps back in recent years, but he’s still an above-average defender. He will provide manager Torey Lovullo with quality left fielders in the infield, joining the breakout shortstop. Geraldo Perdomo with that.
Acquiring Arenado leaves the Diamondbacks with little chance of picking the former No. 1 overall pick. 6 and high hopes Jordan Lawler. Perdomo’s breakout appeared to pressure Lawlar down the defensive mirror at third base, but he looked to be passing the glove and in the batter’s box during his first few tests against MLB pitching. The D-backs were considering giving him some time in the outfield, and maybe him Jake McCarthy now in Colorado following this weekend’s trade, there will be a clear path to that test. If not, Lawlar has a minor league option remaining and could be sent back to Triple-A (where he regularly hits opposing pitchers) — or even included in a trade package that could address needs elsewhere on the roster.
Even if the Snakes want to cut salary, the addition of that portion of Arenado’s contract amounts to little more than a footnote. He’s replacing a minor leaguer, so this trade adds a total of $4.2MM to the team’s books. Per RosterResource estimates, that brings Arizona’s salary to just north of $170MM. That’s more than $17MM shy of last year’s Opening Day payout. The exact targets are unclear, but there should be room to add a reliever or two, at the very least, and the ongoing trade could always change the outlook for the lead in some way.
If the money changed hands (and the regular reporting in the year-plus leading up to today’s trading) was not enough indication that this was the same as dumping the salary of St. Louis, the return should be. Martinez has yet to pitch an inning in professional ball. The Diamondbacks selected him with their eighth-round pick last year out of Arizona State University. His $167K signing bonus checked in just south of his No. 1 slot value. 243 picks for a total of $223K.
A 6’4″, 215-pound righty, Martinez began his college career playing Division-III football before transferring twice and eventually making the Sun Devils as a senior. He posted a 5.47 ERA through 15 starts during his senior year. It’s not an encouraging number, but Martinez has struck out 32.3% of his opponents and can run his fastball up to 97 mph, according to MLB.com’s scouting report. He has a four-pitch mix and a changeup that serves as his second-best offering, but Martinez is a pure lottery ticket for the Cardinals’ revamped player development department.
Last year, the Cardinals thought they had the job done in sending Arenado to the Astros. Arenado, however, requested his no-trade protection to continue that arrangement, reportedly due to reservations about the Astros’ commitment to competition; Houston was just traded Kyle Tucker to the Cubs days before the Nixed Arenado deal. Heading into the current season, Arenado would come around to the fact that he will be more open-minded to offseason trades than he was last winter.
That seems obvious, but the D-backs would likely be his place to stay even if he continues to remain a pick. Arizona may raise the fee, but its signing Merrill Kelly again Michael Soroka — and their reported interest in the aforementioned Bregman — all indicate a commitment to trying to land a contender in 2026. Besides, Arizona is a native of Southern California with a home in Arizona. There are geographic advantages that played into his decision to waive that no-trade clause to move to the desert.
For the Cardinals, moving Arenado now removes limited upside from the long-term books and furthers their goal of creating opportunities for young players. It remains to be seen whether Arenado’s third supporters will attend Nolan Gormanhigh hopes JJ Wetherholt or a former first baseman/third baseman-turned-outfielder Jordan Walker. Whoever takes over the regular job at the hot corner will be a viable long-term option to replace Arenado as he enters his mid-30s.
The Arenado trade is the third big-name veteran deal for the Cardinals this offseason. They are already trading Sonny Gray again Wilson Contreras to the Red Sox. Those players were released in separate agreements, St. Louis spends significant portions of money on those activities, too. Between Gray, Contreras and Arenado now, the Cardinals will be shelling out $54MM over the next two seasons for the three players no longer on their books (technically $59MM, but then again, they get $5MM from the Rockies to cover part of Arenado’s $32MM salary in 2026).
Spending that amount of money to promote the trade of three former All-Star players is unprecedented, but the Cardinals have been open about their intention to rebuild the organization from the ground up, modernizing the player development department, the analytics staff and various other parts of the team’s baseball operations setup – all while giving young and manageable players a chance to prove themselves to the big players. With three expensive veterans gone, the carry has been taken care of, but the Cardinals are still widely expected to trade a second baseman. Brendan Donovan and the left hand cutter JoJo Romero before the season starts.
The Athletic’s Katie Woo first reported that the two sides were in serious talks. John Gambadoro of 98.7 FM Arizona Sports broke the news that a deal is in place and added that Martinez is returning to St. Louis. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic first reported the details of the money change.
