Carlos Alcaraz’s final cut: Inside the first success of the Spanish return | ATP Tour

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The last nullifier of Alcaraz: Inside the success of the first Spanish return

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers focuses on Spanish dominance

December 22, 2025

Carlos Alcaraz has the ultimate suppressor in his arsenal.

ATP Year-End No. 1 presented by PIF is a powerful all-rounder who puts on a show with his shooting. But his secret weapon is his first comeback.

According to Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis, Alcaraz led the Tour in points returns and made it his first win in three consecutive seasons. In 2025, the Spaniard won 35 percent of those points, and only Jannik Sinner (33.6%) and Francisco Cerundolo (33.4%) won more than 33 percent.

First Redemption Points Won (2025)

The first serve is an important weapon on the ATP Tour, many players put opponents on the back foot quickly and get a lot of free points. Even the Spaniard wins more than one of the three return points from the starters. That is why his standing out from his competitors in the division is very important.

The 22-year-old’s 35 percent win rate in his 2025 debut was at least 10 percent better than seven of the other nine players who finished in the year-end Top 10.

Top 10 End of Year 2025: First Performance Return Points Won

^{*Draper is not included in the leaderboard due to not meeting the minimum number of games played, but would have been ninth.}

Alcaraz’s first return winning percentage was 33.9 percent better than World No. 9 Ben Shelton’s (26.2%) and 33.2 percent better than World No. 6 Taylor Fritz’s (26.3%).

This was not a one-year success story, either. Alcaraz has dominated this category for years. Since his first season on the ATP Tour in 2021, the 24-time tour ranking list has never finished outside the top five on Tour.

In the last three years, no one has come close to Alcaraz. His 35 percent win rate on debut from 2023 is six percent better than Alex de Minaur, who is ranked second on the Tour over the same period (32.9%). Daniil Medvedev (32.9%) is directly behind De Minaur.

First Service Return Points Won (2023-2025)

Alcaraz has compiled a record of 71-9 in 2025 according to the Infosys ATP Win/Loss Index. But there was a trend in his loss: a below-par recovery performance.

The Tour’s leader in titles (8) and match wins (71) has lost just nine times, and in seven of those losses he has won 31 percent of his first-return points or less. In five of those games, he scored nearly 27 percent of his first-time returns.

The players exited the quarterfinals of the Australian Open against Novak Djokovic and the semifinals of the BNP Paribas Open against Jack Draper. Alcaraz shot 36 percent against his opponents for the first time in those games.

Overall, Alcaraz does a better job than anyone else of limiting the effectiveness of his opponents the first time around. That was one of the reasons he was able to finish the year in second place and it will be something the Spaniard will rely on going into 2026 and beyond.

First Refund Points Earned (Activity)