Kristian Campbell he was one of the most exciting players in sports at this time a year ago. Baseball America ranked him the #4 prospect in MLB on the heels of a .330/.439/.558 showing in the minors. Campbell was often viewed closer or slightly more Marcelo Mayer as the Red Sox’s second best prospect in the backfield Roman Anthony. The organization seems to share that assessment, as they build their trading package Garrett Crochet all around Kyle Teel again Braden Montgomery instead of putting anyone in the top three.
Campbell broke camp despite a limited Spring Training performance. He started at second base on Opening Day and got off to a hot start, hitting .301/.407/.495 by the end of April. Boston quickly locked him up to an eight-year, $60MM guaranteed extension and extended the club’s control window by four seasons.
After nine months, it’s unclear if he has a way to play in the short term. Campbell’s bat washed out after a hot start. He hit .159/.243/.222 over 140 plate appearances between early May and mid-June. The Sox optioned him to Triple-A on June 20 and kept him in the minors for the rest of the season.
Campbell posted good numbers in the minors, at least over. He hit .273/.382/.417 in 319 Triple-A plate appearances. It certainly didn’t match his 2024 debut season, but that’s above average production for a 23-year-old. However, there was a strike rate of 26.3%, which was six points higher than his points from last season. Campbell also averaged a paltry 84 MPH off the bat with a solid 30% contact rate, and put more than half of his batted balls on the ground. He walked a lot and the results were good overall, however the batted ball data was not very encouraging.
The record is strong enough that Campbell remains a promising offensive player, although he has less confidence that he will be an impact player than he may have been last year. A big concern on the other side of the ball.
Campbell’s second defense was a disaster. Defensive Runs Saved gave him 16 runs below average in 471 2/3 innings. Only Luis García Jr. had the worst DRS in the area, and that came in twice as many innings. Campbell was tied for third from the bottom in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric (and behind players who got overtime in the position). He committed seven errors and had a .968 fielding percentage that finished among 38 second basemen to play 400+ innings.
It was bad enough that it looked like the Red Sox had given up on Campbell as a viable second baseman. He started just 11 games there in the minors, one of which came after August 8. Campbell closed the season bouncing between left field, center field and first base.
The Red Sox have a question mark at second base but don’t seem to be considering Campbell there. It is reported that they are focusing on defense as they are looking outside the organization for important help. Baseball executive Craig Breslow admitted last week that the Sox will “give (Campbell) a look in the outfield” (link via MassLive’s Christopher Smith). David Hamilton, Romy Gonzalez again Nick Sogard lead an uninspiring infield group of second base options. Sell them Wilson Contreras and you still have it Residences in Triston Casas – who is in a similar position to Campbell – ahead of him on the first base chart.
Campbell is a good enough athlete that there is no question that he will be a strong player. The Red Sox don’t have many at-bats to give him there, though. They are already loaded across the field with Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu and Anthony. Breslow has always downplayed their desire to trade Duran or Abreu. That seems less likely now that they’ve dealt with the rotation in other ways. They’re not going to move an above-average draftee just to make room for Campbell.
The Sox lost a lefty masher Rob Refsnyder in free agency, but they plan to give Abreu more at-bats against southpaws. Relegating the good-hitting Campbell to a shortstop role is not good for his development. Breslow pointed to the 29-year-old Nate Eaton as an opportunity to pick up some of the bats that Refsnyder had taken.
It leaves Campbell without a clear role as Spring Training approaches. If the Red Sox don’t see themselves as a ballplayer, they won’t have much to offer off the bench. He still has two minor league options and could return to Triple-A. That’s the most likely result to start the season and would at least give him some work to do on the field. They can bide their time that way, but it’s clearly not the best way to set up a player who just looked like a franchise player.
There hasn’t been anything to suggest the Red Sox are considering a trade this offseason. While Campbell’s extension would not prevent them from trading him, it would be out of character for the team to trade low prospects for one season of an eight-year contract. The Sox could potentially shed the entire contract if that were their only goal, but they would need to accept pennies on the dollar in return for the trade.
Maybe the situation will correct itself at the beginning of the season. An injury or two could keep Campbell on the roster. No one writes their work before they are 24 years old. However, it is not uncommon for opportunities to dry up as quickly as they did for a player who was caught in this as a prospect. If Campbell spends the first half of the season in the minors and the Sox compete, he could be a realistic trade candidate at the deadline.
Photo courtesy of John Jones, Imagn Images.
